Shell plc (SHELL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · NL · Market cap €206B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €45.89 to €46.09 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 19% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from €34.57 (bear) to €59.75 (bull), base €46.09. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 65/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.89 – €40.69 · fair‑value band €34.57 – €59.75 · the €38.79 price screens below the €46.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Shell plc (SHELL) currently trades at €38.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €46.09, implying the stock looks roughly 18.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shell plc generated revenue of €267B at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at €74.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €34.57 (bear case) to €59.75 (bull case); at €38.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 19%, SHELL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€56.38) versus Dividend Discount (€16.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions.
Full company description
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. The company explores for and extracts natural gas to produce liquefied natural gas or convert it into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products; explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and operates marketing and transportation of oil, gas, and liquids, supported by the infrastructure required to deliver them to market or to process them within Shell's chemical manufacturing plants and refineries. It is also involved in marketing, which includes mobility, lubricants, and sectors focused on decarbonization; operates a retail network, including electric vehicle charging, convenience retail, and the wholesale commercial fuels business for transport and industry; sells products for road transport and machinery in manufacturing, mining, power generation, agriculture, and construction; and provides low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, to a broad range of commercial customers, including those in the aviation, marine, and agriculture sectors. In addition, the company offers chemicals and products, including chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries that turn crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of oil products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial, and transport use; and operates a pipeline business, trading, and optimization of crude oil, oil products, and petrochemicals. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shell plc reported revenue of €273B in FY2025 versus €262B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was €18.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TotalEnergies (ENXTPA:TTE) Buys Shell Renewables Assets And Partners With KKR
- Why are Shell and BP moving away from renewables?
- TotalEnergies acquires Shell's renewables business
- Shell Sells European Onshore Renewables Portfolio to TotalEnergies
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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