CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CITIC Securities Co Ltd HK$21.94, price HK$23.74, upside -7.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$9.87 – HK$31.45 · fair‑value band HK$19.61 – HK$28.94 · the HK$23.74 price screens above the HK$21.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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CITIC Securities Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Brokerage, Asset Management, Securities Investment, Securities Underwriting, and Other.
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CITIC Securities Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Brokerage, Asset Management, Securities Investment, Securities Underwriting, and Other. The company offers investment banking, including equity, bonds, asset-backed securitization, and merger and acquisition; asset management for active, passive, and cross-border investments, as well as alternative businesses; and equity sales and trading services, such as research, equity project sales, equity product marketing, equity trading, transaction execution, and algo trading services. It also provides margin trading, short selling, securities borrowing and lending, and stock repo and financing; wealth management comprising trade service, investment management, and asset allocation and succession; and FICC business, which includes sales, trading, investment advisory, and structured products and derivatives. In addition, the company offers research services; and custody, fund administration, and interbank market client clearing services. It serves corporate, institutional, and retail clients. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) currently trades at HK$23.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.94, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$54.63 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$23.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$10.44, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$19.61 (bear) to HK$28.94 (bull), the price of HK$23.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CITIC Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 166B CNY in FY2025 versus 90.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was 29.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$404B (≈ $51.5B) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) HK$2.34 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −8%, 6030 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$19.61Fair Value HK$21.94Bull HK$28.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+100.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 7.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.9% a year for the forecasts.
Compare CITIC Securities Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)40.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)57.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth44.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.18× · Pricier than median
P/FCF155.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.16× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 92
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)53· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CITIC Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6030
Frequently asked questions
Is CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.94 versus a price of HK$23.74, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 6030?
Our model-based fair value for CITIC Securities Co Ltd is HK$21.94 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$23.74.
What is the quality score of 6030?
CITIC Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$21.94 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$19.61, optimistic scenario HK$28.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CITIC Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$21.94, about −8% upside versus a price of HK$23.74 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$19.61, optimistic scenario HK$28.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
CITIC Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 82.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does CITIC Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
CITIC Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CITIC Securities Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6030 use?
Our models discount CITIC Securities Co Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CITIC Securities Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CITIC Securities Co Ltd grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CITIC Securities Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.74 %: that much free cash flow CITIC Securities Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CITIC Securities Co Ltd it is HK$21.94 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$23.74. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CITIC Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 6030 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$23.74, fair value HK$21.94, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6030?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$23.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$21.94). For CITIC Securities Co Ltd the two are HK$1.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CITIC Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values CITIC Securities Co Ltd at about HK$404B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$23.74; our models calculate a fair value of HK$21.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6030?
Our models span a range for CITIC Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$19.61, base HK$21.94, optimistic HK$28.94 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$23.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6030?
CITIC Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$21.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.2, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 6030?
The PEG ratio of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Balance-sheet figures for CITIC Securities Co Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6030 from its 52-week high?
CITIC Securities Co Ltd trades at HK$23.74, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$30.73 and 2% above the low of HK$23.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$21.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CITIC Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CITIC Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$23.74, calculated fair value HK$21.94 (−8%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6030 calculated?
We run CITIC Securities Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$21.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CITIC Securities Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$23.74. Our model-based fair value is HK$21.94, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CITIC Securities Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) come from?
Earnings per share at CITIC Securities Co Ltd grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CITIC Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The market capitalisation of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is HK$404B (≈ $51.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Securities Co Ltd are HK$2.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The dividend yield of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 2.6% (payout 26.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The net margin of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 17.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
The operating margin of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 57.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Revenue at CITIC Securities Co Ltd is growing +44.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Securities Co Ltd are growing +55.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CITIC Securities Co Ltd (6030) carry?
The net debt of CITIC Securities Co Ltd is 619B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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