Hengdian Entertainment Co (603103) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · CN · Market cap 9.6B CNY

A strong business, but screening 72% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.11 – ¥40.41 · fair‑value band ¥3.20 – ¥5.33 · the ¥15.13 price screens above the ¥4.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

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Analysis

Hengdian Entertainment Co (603103) currently trades at ¥15.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.27, implying the stock looks roughly 71.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hengdian Entertainment Co generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of -8.4%. Revenue declined 50.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 6.5M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.20 (bear case) to ¥5.33 (bull case); at ¥15.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -72%, 603103 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥13.02) versus Asset-Based (¥1.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD engages in film and television investment, production, distribution, film screening, and related businesses in China. It operates in two divisions, Cinema Division; and Film Production and Distribution Division. The company offers viewing and catering services, pre-movie advertising, and theatrical distribution.

Full company description

Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD engages in film and television investment, production, distribution, film screening, and related businesses in China. It operates in two divisions, Cinema Division; and Film Production and Distribution Division. The company offers viewing and catering services, pre-movie advertising, and theatrical distribution. It is also involved in the production, distribution, and derivative business of films; cinema investment and construction; performance venue operation; production and operation of radio and television programs; production and sale of food and beverage; advertising production and distribution; internet sales of food. In addition, the company engages in the provision of asset management, conference and exhibition, corporate management consulting, tourism recruitment and consulting services, information system integration, food delivery, digital content production, product exhibition and display services, as well as technical services, consulting, and exchange; advertising design and agency business; non-residential real estate leasing; rental of leisure and entertainment equipment; organization of cultural and artistic exchange activities; experiential development activities and planning; business training; and travel and ticket agency. Further, it sells eyeglasses, maternity and baby products, household appliances, textiles, office supplies, gifts and flowers, electronic products, daily necessities, general merchandise, arts and crafts, etiquette items, outdoor products, amusement and entertainment products, and animation and toys; retail of pet food and supplies, clothing and apparel, cosmetics, jewelry, musical instruments, and sporting goods and equipment; technological development, transfer, and promotion; and cultural and creative software. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Dongyang, China. Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD is a subsidiary of Hengdian Group Holding Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hengdian Entertainment Co reported revenue of ¥2.3B in FY2025 versus ¥2.3B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥159M in FY2025, compounding +84.7%/yr from FY2021.

603103 screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →

Peer Group

Entertainment · 267 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.