Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co (603815) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price −19.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.93 – ¥14.47 · fair‑value band ¥2.37 – ¥3.67 · the ¥5.35 price screens above the ¥2.98 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co (603815) currently trades at ¥5.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.98, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co generated revenue of 3.7B CNY at a net margin of -20.6%. Revenue declined 19.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -36.5%. Net debt stands at 980M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.37 (bear case) to ¥3.67 (bull case); at ¥5.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -44%, 603815 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥5.01) versus Asset-Based (¥1.64). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway and municipal infrastructure construction company in China.
Full company description
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway and municipal infrastructure construction company in China. The company undertakes road construction, bridge engineering, tunnel engineering, municipal engineering, urban rail transit engineering, housing construction project, designs services, maintenance project and test inspection works; and invests in projects. Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is based in Hefei, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co reported revenue of ¥3.8B in FY2025 versus ¥5.1B in FY2021, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was −¥783M in FY2025.
603815 screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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