Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd ¥2.16, price ¥5.11, upside -57.7%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.93 – ¥14.47 · fair‑value band ¥1.80 – ¥2.45 · the ¥5.11 price screens above the ¥2.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway and municipal infrastructure construction company in China.
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Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway and municipal infrastructure construction company in China. The company undertakes road construction, bridge engineering, tunnel engineering, municipal engineering, urban rail transit engineering, housing construction project, designs services, maintenance project and test inspection works; and invests in projects. Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is based in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815) currently trades at ¥5.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.16, implying the stock looks roughly 136.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥5.01 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥5.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.64, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.80 (bear) to ¥2.45 (bull), the price of ¥5.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was −783M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2B CNY (≈ $472M) · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.23 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin −20.4% · Return on equity −36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −58%, 603815 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.80Fair Value ¥2.16Bull ¥2.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.3/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.4% (2020) → 6.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−21% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.31× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603815
Frequently asked questions
Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.16 versus a price of ¥5.11, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603815?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is ¥2.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.11.
What is the quality score of 603815?
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.80, optimistic scenario ¥2.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.16, about −58% upside versus a price of ¥5.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.80, optimistic scenario ¥2.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd it is ¥2.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.11. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603815 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.11, fair value ¥2.16, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603815?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.16). For Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd the two are ¥2.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd worth?
The market values Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd at about 3.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.11; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603815?
Our models span a range for Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.80, base ¥2.16, optimistic ¥2.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥5.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −36.5%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603815 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd trades at ¥5.11, about 65% below its 52-week high of ¥14.47 and 4% above the low of ¥4.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.11, calculated fair value ¥2.16 (−58%), Quality Score 35/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603815 calculated?
We run Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥5.11. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.16, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 3.2B CNY (≈ $472M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd are ¥−1.23. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 3.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The net margin of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is −20.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is −36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
The operating margin of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Revenue at Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is growing −19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd are growing +80.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815) generate?
The free cash flow of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is −375M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd (603815) carry?
The net debt of Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co Ltd is 980M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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