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Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci stock ¥0.42, price ¥3.55, upside -88.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100002GD2

HB Hunan Baili Engineering Sci logo Thin data Oct 26, 2026

Hunan Baili Engineering Sci

603959 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 88% below what the stock costs today.

Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value ¥0.4200 · Strongly overvalued (−88.2%)
Quality 33/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −12.0 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -63.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/8)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥20.13 ¥1.37 Fair Value ¥0.4200 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.37 – ¥20.13 · fair‑value band ¥0.3900 – ¥0.4700 · the ¥3.55 price screens above the ¥0.4200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

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Company profile

Hunan Baili Engineering Sci&Tech Co.,Ltd provides professional engineering consultation, engineering design, engineering, procurement, and construction services in China.

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The company engages in the engineering consulting and design, engineering general contracting, equipment intelligent manufacturing, intelligent production line integrated manufacturing, etc.

It also provides study, FEED, licensing, and basic and detailed engineering services; sourcing, purchasing of equipment, bulks, and spare parts, subcontracting, and expediting and inspection services; site advisory and management, site fabrication, installation, and commissioning and start-up services; and cost, schedule, scope, and quality control services, as well as health, safety, and environmental-related risk management services.

The company serves petrochemical and modern coal chemical; petroleum refining; chemical raw materials; synthetic fiber, rubber, and resin; and oil and gas storage and transportation industries. Hunan Baili Engineering Sci&Tech Co.,Ltd was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Yueyang, China.

Stock analysis

Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959) currently trades at ¥3.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.4200, 88.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥0.3900 (bear) to ¥0.4700 (bull), the price of ¥3.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Hunan Baili Engineering Sci reported revenue of 741M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −154M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.7B CNY (≈ $261M) Micro · P/S ratio 5.50 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.4700 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin −63.7% · Return on equity −1,558% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8% · Operating margin −157%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −88%, 603959 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.3900 Fair Value ¥0.4200 Bull ¥0.4700
Price ¥3.55 · Upside -88.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Gordon GGM ¥0.3900 ¥0.4200 ¥0.4700 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3900 ¥0.4700 ¥0.5700 67
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.3900 ¥0.4200 ¥0.4700 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3900 ¥0.4700 ¥0.5700 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 5
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 4
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 56
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 13
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2020) → −8.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

603959 screens overvalued: fair value 88% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −6.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −63.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −156.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −74.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 4.78× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vinci SA DG €106.45 €186.68 +75% vs 603959
WSP Global Inc WSP C$182.75 C$201.03 +10% vs 603959
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,161 $1,122 −3% vs 603959
EMCOR Group EME $647.66 $527.04 −19% vs 603959
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €87.55 €62.21 −29% vs 603959
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,647 ₹2,302 −37% vs 603959
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €357.00 €203.86 −43% vs 603959
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 290,000 KRW 159,718 KRW −45% vs 603959
Ferrovial N.V FER $50.02 $23.21 −54% vs 603959
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $546.43 $162.77 −70% vs 603959

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Hunan Baili Engineering Sci · Fair Value
¥0.4200 −88%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hunan Baili Engineering Sci Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603959

Frequently asked questions

Is Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.4200 versus a price of ¥3.55, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603959?
Our model-based fair value for Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is ¥0.4200 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.55.
What is the quality score of 603959?
Hunan Baili Engineering Sci has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.4200 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3900, optimistic scenario ¥0.4700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hunan Baili Engineering Sci stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.4200, about −88% upside versus a price of ¥3.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3900, optimistic scenario ¥0.4700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Hunan Baili Engineering Sci reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 364M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Hunan Baili Engineering Sci pay a dividend?
Hunan Baili Engineering Sci currently shows a dividend yield of 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hunan Baili Engineering Sci it is ¥0.4200 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥3.55. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hunan Baili Engineering Sci stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 603959 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.55, fair value ¥0.4200, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603959?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.4200). For Hunan Baili Engineering Sci the two are ¥3.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hunan Baili Engineering Sci worth?
The market values Hunan Baili Engineering Sci at about 1.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.55; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603959?
Our models span a range for Hunan Baili Engineering Sci: cautious scenario ¥0.3900, base ¥0.4200, optimistic ¥0.4700 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥3.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (as of Oct 26, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603959 from its 52-week high?
Hunan Baili Engineering Sci trades at ¥3.55, about 54% below its 52-week high of ¥7.80 and at the low of ¥3.55 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hunan Baili Engineering Sci?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hunan Baili Engineering Sci stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥3.55, calculated fair value ¥0.4200 (−88%), Quality Score 33/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603959 calculated?
We run Hunan Baili Engineering Sci through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.4200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hunan Baili Engineering Sci itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was ¥3.55. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.4200, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hunan Baili Engineering Sci right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci

How large is the market capitalisation of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The market capitalisation of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is 1.7B CNY (≈ $261M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is 5.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Earnings per share at Hunan Baili Engineering Sci are ¥−0.4700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The dividend yield of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The net margin of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is −63.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is −1,558% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
The operating margin of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is −157% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Revenue at Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is growing −74.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −38.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959)?
Earnings per share at Hunan Baili Engineering Sci are growing +125% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959) generate?
The free cash flow of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is −110M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hunan Baili Engineering Sci (603959) carry?
The net debt of Hunan Baili Engineering Sci is 485M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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