Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd ¥3.10, price ¥7.32, upside -57.7%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.09 – ¥14.30 · fair‑value band ¥2.22 – ¥3.88 · the ¥7.32 price screens above the ¥3.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and selling of packaging papers products in China and internationally. It offers corrugated and gift box, as well as paper bag. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Wenling, China.
Stock analysis
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500) currently trades at ¥7.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.10, implying the stock looks roughly 136.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥4.18 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the ¥7.32 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.6300, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥2.22 (bear) to ¥3.88 (bull), the price of ¥7.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 61.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $452M) · P/E ratio 122.0 · P/S ratio 2.68 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0600 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −58%, 605500 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.22Fair Value ¥3.10Bull ¥3.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth85% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)122.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.96× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA30.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/605500
Frequently asked questions
Is Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.10 versus a price of ¥7.32, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 605500?
Our model-based fair value for Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is ¥3.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.32.
What is the quality score of 605500?
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.22, optimistic scenario ¥3.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.10, about −58% upside versus a price of ¥7.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.22, optimistic scenario ¥3.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd it is ¥3.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥7.32. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 605500 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.32, fair value ¥3.10, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 605500?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.10). For Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd the two are ¥4.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.32; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 605500?
Our models span a range for Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.22, base ¥3.10, optimistic ¥3.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥7.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 605500?
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 122.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 30.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Balance-sheet figures for Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 605500 from its 52-week high?
Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd trades at ¥7.32, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥11.70 and 19% above the low of ¥6.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥7.32, calculated fair value ¥3.10 (−58%), Quality Score 36/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 605500 calculated?
We run Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥7.32. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.10, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The market capitalisation of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 3.0B CNY (≈ $452M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 2.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Earnings per share at Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd are ¥0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 122.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The dividend yield of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 1.0% (payout 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The net margin of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Revenue at Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is growing +85.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500)?
Earnings per share at Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd are growing −34.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500) generate?
The free cash flow of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is −578M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd (605500) carry?
The net debt of Forest Packaging Group Co Ltd is 873M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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