Butong Group (6090) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Butong Group HK$26.46, price HK$41.00, upside -35.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range HK$26.88 – HK$138.60 · fair‑value band HK$22.27 – HK$31.35 · the HK$41.00 price screens above the HK$26.46 fair value. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Butong Group through its subsidiaries, engages in the designing, manufacturing, selling and research and development of nursery products.
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Butong Group through its subsidiaries, engages in the designing, manufacturing, selling and research and development of nursery products. The company offers travel gears, such as strollers, car seats and baby carriers; sleep gears including cribs, pajamas and pillows; feeding gears consist of highchairs and tablewares; baby care products comprising diapers and wipes. It also engages in e-commerce business, marketing and promotion and aftersales services. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Butong Group (6090) currently trades at HK$41.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.46, 35.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$38.93 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$41.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$9.58, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$22.27 (bear) to HK$31.35 (bull), the price of HK$41.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Butong Group reported revenue of 1.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 158M CNY in FY2021, a compound +73.9%/yr. Reported net income was 65.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.7B (≈ $474M) · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.5300 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3% · Operating margin 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −35%, 6090 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$22.27Fair Value HK$26.46Bull HK$31.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3979 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+144.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +62.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.62.9% vs 31.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.105% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 140% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−35.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.4% · Above median
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.20× · Pricier than median
P/FCF72.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Butong Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6090
Frequently asked questions
Is Butong Group (6090) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.46 versus a price of HK$41.00, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6090?
Our model-based fair value for Butong Group is HK$26.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$41.00.
What is the quality score of 6090?
Butong Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Butong Group (6090)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$26.46 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$22.27, optimistic scenario HK$31.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Butong Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$26.46, about −35% upside versus a price of HK$41.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$22.27, optimistic scenario HK$31.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Butong Group (6090)?
Butong Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Butong Group (6090)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Butong Group would have to grow free cash flow by +33.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +61.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6090 use?
Our models discount Butong Group at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Butong Group that is +33.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Butong Group (6090) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Butong Group grew +61.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Butong Group (6090) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Butong Group (+33.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Butong Group (6090)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.38 %: that much free cash flow Butong Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Butong Group (6090)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Butong Group it is HK$26.46 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$41.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Butong Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 6090 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$41.00, fair value HK$26.46, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6090?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$41.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$26.46). For Butong Group the two are HK$14.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Butong Group worth?
The market values Butong Group at about HK$3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$41.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$26.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6090?
Our models span a range for Butong Group: cautious scenario HK$22.27, base HK$26.46, optimistic HK$31.35 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$41.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6090?
Butong Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$26.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Butong Group (6090)?
Balance-sheet figures for Butong Group (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6090 from its 52-week high?
Butong Group trades at HK$41.00, about 70% below its 52-week high of HK$138.60 and 53% above the low of HK$26.88 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$26.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Butong Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Butong Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$41.00, calculated fair value HK$26.46 (−35%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6090 calculated?
We run Butong Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$26.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Butong Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Butong Group (6090)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$41.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$26.46, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Butong Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$31.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Butong Group (6090) come from?
Earnings per share at Butong Group grew +4.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +38.9 %, EBIT margin −14.4 %, tax rate −4.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Butong Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Butong Group (6090)?
The market capitalisation of Butong Group is HK$3.7B (≈ $474M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Butong Group (6090)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Butong Group is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Butong Group (6090)?
Earnings per share at Butong Group are HK$0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Butong Group (6090)?
The net margin of Butong Group is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Butong Group (6090)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Butong Group is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Butong Group (6090)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Butong Group is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Butong Group (6090)?
The operating margin of Butong Group is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Butong Group (6090)?
Revenue at Butong Group is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +145%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Butong Group (6090)?
Earnings per share at Butong Group are growing −44.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Butong Group (6090) hold?
Butong Group holds more cash than debt, 153M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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