China Feihe Ltd (6186) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of China Feihe Ltd HK$4.57, price HK$2.57, upside +78.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.48 – HK$16.29 · fair‑value band HK$2.97 – HK$6.75 · the HK$2.57 price screens below the HK$4.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Feihe Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells dairy products, raw milk, and nutritional supplements in Mainland China, Canada, Indonesia, and the United States. It operates through two segments, Dairy Products and Nutritional Supplements Products; and Raw Milk.
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China Feihe Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells dairy products, raw milk, and nutritional supplements in Mainland China, Canada, Indonesia, and the United States. It operates through two segments, Dairy Products and Nutritional Supplements Products; and Raw Milk. The company offers dairy products adult milk powders; liquid milk products; and rice powder supplement products, as well as health care products. It also retails vitamins, minerals, herbs, and other nutritional supplements. The company sells its products distributors, retailers, e-commerce platforms, and end consumers through e-commerce channels. China Feihe Limited was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Feihe Ltd (6186) currently trades at HK$2.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.57, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$4.19 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.57 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.60, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.97 (bear) to HK$6.75 (bull), the price of HK$2.57 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Feihe Ltd reported revenue of 18.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −27.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$25.1B (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1100 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 78%, 6186 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.97Fair Value HK$4.57Bull HK$6.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.1% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+78% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−16% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Feihe Ltd (6186) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.57 versus a price of HK$2.57, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6186?
Our model-based fair value for China Feihe Ltd is HK$4.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.57.
What is the quality score of 6186?
China Feihe Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.97, optimistic scenario HK$6.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Feihe Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.57, about +78% upside versus a price of HK$2.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.97, optimistic scenario HK$6.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
China Feihe Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 18.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Feihe Ltd pay a dividend?
China Feihe Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Feihe Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6186 use?
Our models discount China Feihe Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Feihe Ltd that is -11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Feihe Ltd (6186) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Feihe Ltd grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Feihe Ltd (6186) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Feihe Ltd (-11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.24 %: that much free cash flow China Feihe Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Feihe Ltd it is HK$4.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Feihe Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6186 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.57, fair value HK$4.57, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6186?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.57). For China Feihe Ltd the two are HK$2.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Feihe Ltd worth?
The market values China Feihe Ltd at about HK$25.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.57; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6186?
Our models span a range for China Feihe Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.97, base HK$4.57, optimistic HK$6.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6186?
China Feihe Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 6186?
The PEG ratio of China Feihe Ltd is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Feihe Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6186 from its 52-week high?
China Feihe Ltd trades at HK$2.57, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$4.28 and 4% above the low of HK$2.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Feihe Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Feihe Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.57, calculated fair value HK$4.57 (+78%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6186 calculated?
We run China Feihe Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Feihe Ltd currently trades 78 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was HK$2.57. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.57, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Feihe Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.97 to HK$6.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of China Feihe Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The market capitalisation of China Feihe Ltd is HK$25.1B (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Feihe Ltd is 1.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Earnings per share at China Feihe Ltd are HK$0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The dividend yield of China Feihe Ltd is 8.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The net margin of China Feihe Ltd is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Feihe Ltd is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Feihe Ltd is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
The operating margin of China Feihe Ltd is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Revenue at China Feihe Ltd is growing −15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Feihe Ltd (6186)?
Earnings per share at China Feihe Ltd are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Feihe Ltd (6186) hold?
China Feihe Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026