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Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co (688313) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 59.0B CNY

HS Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co 688313 · SHG
Price¥130.50
Fair Value¥13.67
Upside-89.5%
Quality63/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 17.9% net margin
negative free cash flow
0.22% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Wide moat 77/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥7.24 – ¥16.95 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Share price −11.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥7.24 to ¥16.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥203.33 ¥7.08 Fair Value ¥13.67 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.08 – ¥203.33 · fair‑value band ¥7.24 – ¥16.95 · the ¥130.50 price screens above the ¥13.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co (688313) currently trades at ¥130.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.67, implying the stock looks roughly 89.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co generated revenue of 2.3B CNY at a net margin of 17.4%. Revenue grew 32.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 246M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.24 (bear case) to ¥16.95 (bull case); at ¥130.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 269% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -90%, 688313 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (¥1.20 to ¥35.85). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥5.29 ¥7.56 ¥51.40 76
Gordon GGM ¥0.6800 ¥1.42 ¥2.25 70
Growth-Adj P/E ¥18.08 ¥25.83 ¥33.59 68
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥9.03 ¥19.54 ¥41.60 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.14 ¥35.85 ¥50.30 54
Lynch FV ¥14.74 ¥21.05 ¥27.37 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥14.74 ¥21.05 ¥27.37 46
EPV ¥7.75 ¥8.91 ¥9.93 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.6800 ¥1.42 ¥2.25 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.6800 ¥1.20 ¥1.49 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥11.34 ¥15.12 ¥18.90 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.83 ¥11.78 ¥14.72 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.35 ¥9.80 ¥12.25 55
EV/EBIT ¥11.75 ¥15.41 ¥19.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥10.63 ¥13.91 ¥17.19 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.18 ¥11.35 ¥14.51 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.63 ¥2.19 ¥3.27 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.29 ¥7.56 ¥51.40 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.97 ¥14.57 ¥20.58 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥18.08 ¥25.83 ¥33.59 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥25.83) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.20). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.2%
Net margin 17.4%
Return on equity 26.8%
Free cash flow −119M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 169.4
More key figures
Operating margin 21.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8800
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +24.6%
Net cash 246M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co., Ltd. operates in the optical communication industry. The company offers PLC optical splitter chip series, arrayed waveguide grating (AWG) chip series, DFB/FP laser chip series, optical fiber connectors, devices, indoor optical cables, and cable polymer materials, as well as TO/TOSA/butterfly packages, optical passive …

Full company description

Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co., Ltd. operates in the optical communication industry. The company offers PLC optical splitter chip series, arrayed waveguide grating (AWG) chip series, DFB/FP laser chip series, optical fiber connectors, devices, indoor optical cables, and cable polymer materials, as well as TO/TOSA/butterfly packages, optical passive products, tunable low-noise single frequency laser, and IDM full process technology platform. Its products are used in optical fiber-optic computing, data centers, 5G infrastructure, backbone networks, metropolitan area networks, fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), fiber optic sensing, and other fields. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hebi, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.1B in FY2025 versus ¥817M in FY2021, a compound +27.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥342M in FY2025, compounding +61.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.1B CNY
Latest YoY
+98.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+33.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.0%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.5%
Revenue +27.0%/yr
FY21 ¥817M
FY22 ¥903M
FY23 ¥755M
FY24 ¥1.1B
FY25 ¥2.1B
Net income +61.5%/yr
FY21 ¥50.2M
FY22 ¥64.3M
FY23 −¥47.5M
FY24 ¥64.9M
FY25 ¥342M

688313 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688313

Peer Group

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 215 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −90% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 65% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 124.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 39.96× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 22.41× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 98.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 60
PAST 100 · sector 31
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 16

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ASML Holding ASML C$50.50 C$15.57 -69%
Applied Materials, Inc AMAT $579.43 $143.08 -75%
Lam Research Corporation LRCX $346.10 $67.57 -80%
KLA Corporation KLAC $212.75 $53.01 -75%
NAURA Technology Group 002371 ¥774.20 ¥151.43 -80%
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 ¥350.69 ¥41.79 -88%
Piotech Inc 688072 ¥832.00 ¥431.44 -48%
Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 6,005 TWD 1,804 TWD -70%
Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 ¥325.24 ¥33.33 -90%
MPI Corporation 6223 5,600 TWD 609.44 TWD -89%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co (688313) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.67 versus a price of ¥130.50, about −90% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688313?
Our model-based fair value for Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co is ¥13.67 (as of Aug 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥130.50.
What is the quality score of 688313?
Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co (688313)?
Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688313?
The net profit margin of Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co is about 17.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co pay a dividend?
Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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