Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tencent Holdings Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range HK$210.15 – HK$615.82 · fair‑value band HK$239.10 – HK$842.87 · the HK$366.80 price screens below the HK$414.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally.
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Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally. The company's consumers business includes communications and social services, such as instant messaging and social networks; digital content, including online games, videos, live streaming, news, music, and literature; fintech services, which include mobile payment, wealth management, consumer loans, and securities trading; and various tools comprising network security management, browsing, navigation, application management, email, etc. Its enterprise business comprises marketing solutions, which offer digital tools, including user insight, creative management, placement strategy, and digital assets management; and cloud services, such as cloud computing, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and security and other technologies for financial services, education, healthcare, retail, industry, transport, energy, and radio and television industries. The company also invests in, produces, and distributes films and television programs; offers copyrights licensing and merchandise sales and other services; provides internet advertisement services; and offers software development, and information technology and system integration services, as well as develops and operates mobile games. The company was formerly known as Tencent (BVI) Limited and changed its name to Tencent Holdings Limited in February 2004. Tencent Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) currently trades at HK$366.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$414.55, implying the stock looks roughly 11.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$640.06 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$366.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$51.44, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$239.10 (bear) to HK$842.87 (bull), the price of HK$366.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tencent Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$752B in FY2025 versus HK$560B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$225B in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.6T (≈ $587B) · P/S ratio 5.99 · EPS (TTM) HK$26.17 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 29.9% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5% · Operating margin 34.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 13%, 80700 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$239.10Fair Value HK$414.55Bull HK$842.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$15.07 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Tencent Holdings Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Interactive Media & Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Communication Services · 1219 stocks
Beats the sector median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$414.55 versus a price of HK$366.80, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 80700?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Holdings Limited is HK$414.55 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$366.80.
What is the quality score of 80700?
Tencent Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$414.55 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$239.10, optimistic scenario HK$842.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tencent Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$414.55, about +13% upside versus a price of HK$366.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$239.10, optimistic scenario HK$842.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Tencent Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$768B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Tencent Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Tencent Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tencent Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 80700 use?
Our models discount Tencent Holdings Limited at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tencent Holdings Limited that is +3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tencent Holdings Limited grew +9.3 % a year. The price currently implies +3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.61 %: that much free cash flow Tencent Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Holdings Limited it is HK$414.55 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$366.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tencent Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 80700 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$366.80, fair value HK$414.55, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 80700?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$366.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$414.55). For Tencent Holdings Limited the two are HK$47.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tencent Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Tencent Holdings Limited at about HK$4.6T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$366.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$414.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 80700?
Our models span a range for Tencent Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$239.10, base HK$414.55, optimistic HK$842.87 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$366.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Holdings Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 20.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 80700 from its 52-week high?
Tencent Holdings Limited trades at HK$366.80, about 41% below its 52-week high of HK$618.29 and 3% above the low of HK$357.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$414.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Trump Media & Technology Group, Alphabet Inc, Konami Group, Meta Platforms, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tencent Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$366.80, calculated fair value HK$414.55 (+13%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 80700 calculated?
We run Tencent Holdings Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$414.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Holdings Limited currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Tencent Holdings Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$239.10 to HK$842.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) come from?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings Limited grew +21.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.2 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tencent Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings Limited is HK$4.6T (≈ $587B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Holdings Limited is 5.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings Limited are HK$26.17. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The dividend yield of Tencent Holdings Limited is 1.3% (payout 18.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The net margin of Tencent Holdings Limited is 29.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Holdings Limited is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Holdings Limited is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
The operating margin of Tencent Holdings Limited is 34.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Revenue at Tencent Holdings Limited is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Holdings Limited (80700)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings Limited are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tencent Holdings Limited (80700) carry?
The net debt of Tencent Holdings Limited is HK$258B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 13, 2026