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Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Trump Media & Technology Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Trump Media & Technology Group
DJTWW · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.09 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 26/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +35.8 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $0.4272 – $40.50 · fair‑value band $0.9900 – $1.22 · the $4.81 price screens above the $1.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. engages in social media and streaming services in the United States. It operates Truth Social, a social media platform for free expression; and Truth+, a streaming platform focusing on family-friendly live TV channels and on-demand content.
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Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. engages in social media and streaming services in the United States. It operates Truth Social, a social media platform for free expression; and Truth+, a streaming platform focusing on family-friendly live TV channels and on-demand content. The company also offers Truth.Fi, a financial service and FinTech brand that incorporates America First investment vehicles; and a digital asset strategy including a bitcoin treasury. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in Sarasota, Florida.
Stock analysis
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW) currently trades at $4.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.09, implying the stock looks roughly 341.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.60 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $4.81 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.7400, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.9900 (bear) to $1.22 (bull), the price of $4.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trump Media & Technology Group reported revenue of $3.7M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$711M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · EPS (TTM) $−0.4300 · Return on equity −101% · Return on assets (EBIT) −151% · Operating margin −33,688% · Revenue (TTM) $3.7M · Revenue growth (YoY) +6.1% · Free cash flow $14.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, DJTWW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9900
Fair Value $1.09
Bull $1.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.35
$1.86
$2.72
77
Growth DCF
$1.33
$1.77
$2.44
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.9500
$1.02
$1.10
71
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.35
$1.86
$2.72
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.9500
$1.02
$1.10
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.09
$1.22
$1.38
65
Multiples
EV/Revenue
$0.7200
$0.7400
$0.7500
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.43
$4.60
$6.86
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.33
$1.77
$2.44
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
26/100
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
12
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,580.9% (2022) → −15,560.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
DJTWW screens 341% overvalued. Compare with Tencent Holdings →
Compare Trump Media & Technology Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Interactive Media & Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Communication Services · 1219 stocks
Beats the sector median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Interactive Media & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tencent Holdings 80700 | HK$366.80 | HK$414.55 | +13% |
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $338.50 | $332.82 | −2% |
| Konami Group KNM | £207.30 | £65.48 | −68% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $648.03 | $712.83 | +10% |
| Netflix, Inc NFLX | $77.40 | $85.14 | +10% |
| China Mobile Limited 600941 | ¥97.72 | ¥102.17 | +5% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $182.33 | $270.48 | +48% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $104.97 | $80.62 | −23% |
| Verizon Communications Inc VZ | $50.61 | $64.43 | +27% |
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $323.96 | $356.36 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.09 versus a price of $4.81, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DJTWW?
Our model-based fair value for Trump Media & Technology Group is $1.09 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.81.
What is the quality score of DJTWW?
Trump Media & Technology Group has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.09 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9900, optimistic scenario $1.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trump Media & Technology Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.09, about −77% upside versus a price of $4.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9900, optimistic scenario $1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Trump Media & Technology Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trump Media & Technology Group would have to grow free cash flow by +44.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +35.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DJTWW use?
Our models discount Trump Media & Technology Group at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 4.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trump Media & Technology Group that is +44.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Trump Media & Technology Group grew +35.8 % a year. The price currently implies +44.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow Trump Media & Technology Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trump Media & Technology Group it is $1.09 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.81. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trump Media & Technology Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, DJTWW trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.81, fair value $1.09, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DJTWW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.09). For Trump Media & Technology Group the two are $3.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trump Media & Technology Group worth?
The market values Trump Media & Technology Group at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.81; our models calculate a fair value of $1.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DJTWW?
Our models span a range for Trump Media & Technology Group: cautious scenario $0.9900, base $1.09, optimistic $1.22 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trump Media & Technology Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −101.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DJTWW from its 52-week high?
Trump Media & Technology Group trades at $4.81, about 61% below its 52-week high of $12.35 and 37% above the low of $3.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trump Media & Technology Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Tencent Holdings, Alphabet Inc, Konami Group, Meta Platforms, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trump Media & Technology Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.81, calculated fair value $1.09 (−77%), Quality Score 26/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DJTWW calculated?
We run Trump Media & Technology Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Trump Media & Technology Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Trump Media & Technology Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Trump Media & Technology Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
The market capitalisation of Trump Media & Technology Group is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Earnings per share at Trump Media & Technology Group are $−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trump Media & Technology Group is −101% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trump Media & Technology Group is −151% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
The operating margin of Trump Media & Technology Group is −33,688% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW)?
Revenue at Trump Media & Technology Group is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Trump Media & Technology Group (DJTWW) carry?
The net debt of Trump Media & Technology Group is $786M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 55.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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