CNOOC Limited (80883) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CNOOC Limited HK$21.08, price HK$20.06, upside +5.1%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range HK$8.25 – HK$26.42 · fair‑value band HK$15.46 – HK$25.77 · the HK$20.06 price screens below the HK$21.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China.
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CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China. It also holds interests in various oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe. In addition, the company is involved in the sales and trading of petroleum and natural gas; oil sands exploration, development, and production; and exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas resources in onshore China, as well as in shale oil and gas activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CNOOC (BVI) LTD.
Stock analysis
CNOOC Limited (80883) currently trades at HK$20.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$22.10 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$20.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$8.22, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$15.46 (bear) to HK$25.77 (bull), the price of HK$20.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CNOOC Limited reported revenue of HK$398B in FY2025 versus HK$422B in FY2022, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$122B in FY2025, compounding −4.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.3T (≈ $167B) · P/S ratio 3.22 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.37 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 30.7% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% · Operating margin 44.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 5%, 80883 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$15.46Fair Value HK$21.08Bull HK$25.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1664 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 43%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+13.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNOOC Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/80883
Frequently asked questions
Is CNOOC Limited (80883) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.08 versus a price of HK$20.06, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 80883?
Our model-based fair value for CNOOC Limited is HK$21.08 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$20.06.
What is the quality score of 80883?
CNOOC Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$21.08 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$15.46, optimistic scenario HK$25.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNOOC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$21.08, about +5% upside versus a price of HK$20.06 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$15.46, optimistic scenario HK$25.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
CNOOC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$407B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does CNOOC Limited pay a dividend?
CNOOC Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNOOC Limited it is HK$21.08 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$20.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNOOC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 80883 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$20.06, fair value HK$21.08, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 80883?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$20.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$21.08). For CNOOC Limited the two are HK$1.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNOOC Limited worth?
The market values CNOOC Limited at about HK$1.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$20.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$21.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 80883?
Our models span a range for CNOOC Limited: cautious scenario HK$15.46, base HK$21.08, optimistic HK$25.77 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$20.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Balance-sheet figures for CNOOC Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 80883 from its 52-week high?
CNOOC Limited trades at HK$20.06, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$26.42 and 21% above the low of HK$16.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$21.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNOOC Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNOOC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$20.06, calculated fair value HK$21.08 (+5%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 80883 calculated?
We run CNOOC Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$21.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CNOOC Limited currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$20.06. Our model-based fair value is HK$21.08, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNOOC Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of CNOOC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The market capitalisation of CNOOC Limited is HK$1.3T (≈ $167B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CNOOC Limited is 3.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Earnings per share at CNOOC Limited are HK$1.37. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The dividend yield of CNOOC Limited is 5.7% (payout 83.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The net margin of CNOOC Limited is 30.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNOOC Limited is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNOOC Limited is 17.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNOOC Limited (80883)?
The operating margin of CNOOC Limited is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Revenue at CNOOC Limited is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNOOC Limited (80883)?
Earnings per share at CNOOC Limited are growing +6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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