Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings HK$1.22, price HK$0.36, upside +243.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0762 – HK$0.3550 · fair‑value band HK$0.8600 – HK$1.59 · the HK$0.3550 price screens below the HK$1.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Tak Lee Machinery Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and leasing of new and used earthmoving equipment in Hong Kong. The company operates through Sales of Heavy Equipment and Spare Parts, Lease of Heavy Equipment, and Maintenance and Ancillary Services segments.
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Tak Lee Machinery Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and leasing of new and used earthmoving equipment in Hong Kong. The company operates through Sales of Heavy Equipment and Spare Parts, Lease of Heavy Equipment, and Maintenance and Ancillary Services segments. It sells and leases heavy equipment, such as excavators, bulldozers, lifting cranes, hydraulic breakers, and others; and sells spare parts. In addition, it provides maintenance and ancillary services; and motor vehicles services. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Yuen Long, Hong Kong. Tak Lee Machinery Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Generous Way Limited.
Stock analysis
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) currently trades at HK$0.3550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.22, implying the stock looks roughly 70.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.74 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$0.3550 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2300, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.8600 (bear) to HK$1.59 (bull), the price of HK$0.3550 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings reported revenue of HK$629M in FY2020 versus HK$320M in FY2016, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$51.3M in FY2020, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap HK$355M (≈ $45.2M) · P/E ratio 4.5 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0477 · Dividend yield 9.9% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2% · Operating margin 10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 244%, 8142 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.8600Fair Value HK$1.22Bull HK$1.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.9%
Profit margin 2015 to 2020 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.0% a year for the price.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tak Lee Machinery Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8142
Frequently asked questions
Is Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.22 versus a price of HK$0.3550, about +244% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8142?
Our model-based fair value for Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is HK$1.22 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3550.
What is the quality score of 8142?
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.22 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8600, optimistic scenario HK$1.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tak Lee Machinery Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.22, about +244% upside versus a price of HK$0.3550 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8600, optimistic scenario HK$1.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$644M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Tak Lee Machinery Holdings pay a dividend?
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tak Lee Machinery Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8142 use?
Our models discount Tak Lee Machinery Holdings at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tak Lee Machinery Holdings that is -16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies -16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (-16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.19 %: that much free cash flow Tak Lee Machinery Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tak Lee Machinery Holdings it is HK$1.22 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3550. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tak Lee Machinery Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 8142 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3550, fair value HK$1.22, a gap of about +244% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8142?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.22). For Tak Lee Machinery Holdings the two are HK$0.8650 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tak Lee Machinery Holdings worth?
The market values Tak Lee Machinery Holdings at about HK$355M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3550; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8142?
Our models span a range for Tak Lee Machinery Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.8600, base HK$1.22, optimistic HK$1.59 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$0.3550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8142?
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.5 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How far is 8142 from its 52-week high?
Tak Lee Machinery Holdings trades at HK$0.3550, at its 52-week high of HK$0.3550 and 60% above the low of HK$0.2220 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tak Lee Machinery Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Sungho Electronics Corp, BHI Co, VITZROCELL Co, Tae Kwang Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tak Lee Machinery Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$0.3550, calculated fair value HK$1.22 (+244%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8142 calculated?
We run Tak Lee Machinery Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tak Lee Machinery Holdings currently trades 71 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.3550. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.22, about +244% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tak Lee Machinery Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.8600 to HK$1.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The market capitalisation of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is HK$355M (≈ $45.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Earnings per share at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings are HK$0.0477 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The dividend yield of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is 9.9% (payout 73.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The net margin of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is 8.2% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
The operating margin of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Revenue at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142)?
Earnings per share at Tak Lee Machinery Holdings are growing +22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tak Lee Machinery Holdings (8142) carry?
The net debt of Tak Lee Machinery Holdings is HK$7.5M (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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