Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co SAR 16.08, price SAR 8.00, upside +101.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.00 SAR – 39.06 SAR · fair‑value band 10.24 SAR – 27.69 SAR · the 8.00 SAR price screens below the 16.08 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Arabia Insurance Cooperative Company engages in the provision of insurance products and services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through six segments: Medical Insurance, Motor Insurance, Fire, Engineering, Marine, and Other.
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Arabia Insurance Cooperative Company engages in the provision of insurance products and services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through six segments: Medical Insurance, Motor Insurance, Fire, Engineering, Marine, and Other. It offers medical insurance, which covers medical costs, medicines, and other medical services and supplies; motor insurance; fire insurance; engineering insurance, which provides coverage for builder's risks, construction, mechanical, electrical, electronic work, and machinery disruption; marine insurance, which provides coverage for goods in transit and the vehicles of transportation on main roads; and other insurances. Arabia Insurance Cooperative Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) currently trades at 8.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.08 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 43.40 SAR per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the 8.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.22 SAR, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 10.24 SAR (bear) to 27.69 SAR (bull), the price of 8.00 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co reported revenue of 884M SAR in FY2025 versus 307M SAR in FY2021, a compound +30.2%/yr. Reported net income was −45.2M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 425M SAR (≈ $113M) · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) −1.21 SAR · Net margin −5.1% · Return on equity −11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin −6.4% · Revenue (TTM) 744M SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 101%, 8160 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 10.24 SARFair Value 16.08 SARBull 27.69 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+53.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.0% (2020) → −3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−26.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −28.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8160
Frequently asked questions
Is Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.08 SAR versus a price of 8.00 SAR, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8160?
Our model-based fair value for Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is 16.08 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 8160?
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.08 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.24 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.69 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.08 SAR, about +101% upside versus a price of 8.00 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 10.24 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.69 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 744M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co would have to grow free cash flow by -26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8160 use?
Our models discount Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co that is -26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co grew +27.7 % a year. The price currently implies -26.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (-26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.25 %: that much free cash flow Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co it is 16.08 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 8.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8160 trades below its calculated fair value: price 8.00 SAR, fair value 16.08 SAR, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8160?
No. The price is what the market pays today (8.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.08 SAR). For Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co the two are 8.08 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co worth?
The market values Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co at about 425M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 8.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 16.08 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8160?
Our models span a range for Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co: cautious scenario 10.24 SAR, base 16.08 SAR, optimistic 27.69 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 8.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −11.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8160 from its 52-week high?
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co trades at 8.00 SAR, about 29% below its 52-week high of 11.29 SAR and at the low of 8.00 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.08 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 8.00 SAR, calculated fair value 16.08 SAR (+101%), Quality Score 49/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8160 calculated?
We run Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.08 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 8.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 16.08 SAR, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (10.24 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (10.24 SAR to 27.69 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) come from?
Earnings per share at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co grew +21.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.1 %, EBIT margin +25.5 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The market capitalisation of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is 425M SAR (≈ $113M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is 0.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Earnings per share at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co are −1.21 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The net margin of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is −5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is −11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
The operating margin of Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is −6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Revenue at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co is growing +65.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160)?
Earnings per share at Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co are growing −97.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co (8160) hold?
Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co holds more cash than debt, 134M SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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