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Medinet Group Ltd (8161) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Medinet Group Ltd HK$0.31, price HK$0.46, upside -32.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · HK

MG Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Medinet Group Ltd

8161 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Generates free cash flow
Quality 44/100
Fair value HK$0.3100 · Overvalued (−32.6%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.4 %/yr in HKD)
Loss-making · -3.9% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 0/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.88 HK$0.2500 Fair Value HK$0.3100 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2500 – HK$1.88 · fair‑value band HK$0.1700 – HK$0.5400 · the HK$0.4600 price screens above the HK$0.3100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

MediNet Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical and dental solutions to corporations, insurance companies, and individuals in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China.

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MediNet Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical and dental solutions to corporations, insurance companies, and individuals in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It operates MediNet Centre, which offers various medical services, including general practitioner consultation services, immunization services, body checkups, and men's health medical services; and dental clinics, which provide various dental services comprising scaling and polishing, fillings, intra-oral X-rays, routine oral examination, oral health education, preventive dental care, and cosmetic dental treatment, as well as teeth restoration, oral surgery, orthodontics, dentures, veneer, invisalign and implants, and teeth whitening services to self-paid patients. The company also provides various services, including physiotherapy, Chinese medicine practitioners, vaccination, health assessment, and diagnostic laboratory tests; and specialist services that offer professional solutions. In addition, it provides online services to sell dental and medical consultation services. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. MediNet Group Limited is a subsidiary of Medinet International Limited.

Stock analysis

Medinet Group Ltd (8161) currently trades at HK$0.4600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3100, 32.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2600 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$0.4600 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1300, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1700 (bear) to HK$0.5400 (bull), the price of HK$0.4600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Medinet Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$83.4M in FY2026 versus HK$121M in FY2022, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$3.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$19.1M (≈ $2.4M) · P/E ratio 3.0 · P/S ratio 0.23 · Net margin −3.9% · Return on equity −34.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.4% · Operating margin −8.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$83.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −33%, 8161 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1700 Fair Value HK$0.3100 Bull HK$0.5400
Price HK$0.4600 · Upside -32.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.1400 HK$0.2600 HK$0.4800 77
Owner Earnings HK$0.8900 HK$1.28 HK$1.99 76
Growth DCF HK$0.1600 HK$0.2700 HK$0.4600 76
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.1400 HK$0.2600 HK$0.4800 77
Owner Earnings HK$0.8900 HK$1.28 HK$1.99 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0800 HK$0.1800 HK$0.3300 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4800 HK$0.8700 HK$1.40 73
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0900 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2600 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3400 HK$0.5900 HK$0.8700 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.8500 HK$1.19 HK$1.54 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.0500 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2600 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.2000 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.1600 HK$0.2700 HK$0.4600 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.0800 HK$0.1900 HK$0.3300 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.4% (2021) → −4.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price.

8161 screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 249 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −32.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −4.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.14× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 2.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $431.63 $597.97 +39%
Fresenius SE FRE €43.64 €34.49 −21%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 225.00 SAR 109.45 SAR −51%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $258.62 $274.35 +6%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, 5225 8.03 MYR 4.87 MYR −39%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,889 ₹2,908 −67%
Encompass Health Corporation EHC $123.47 $94.47 −23%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS $22.27 $45.84 +106%
DaVita Inc DVA $178.69 $215.81 +21%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥7.91 ¥10.86 +37%

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Medinet Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3100 −33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medinet Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8161

Frequently asked questions

Is Medinet Group Ltd (8161) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3100 versus a price of HK$0.4600, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8161?
Our model-based fair value for Medinet Group Ltd is HK$0.3100 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4600.
What is the quality score of 8161?
Medinet Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3100 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1700, optimistic scenario HK$0.5400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medinet Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3100, about −33% upside versus a price of HK$0.4600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1700, optimistic scenario HK$0.5400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
Medinet Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$83.4M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medinet Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.4 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8161 use?
Our models discount Medinet Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medinet Group Ltd that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medinet Group Ltd (8161) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medinet Group Ltd grew -8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medinet Group Ltd (8161) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medinet Group Ltd (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.71 %: that much free cash flow Medinet Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medinet Group Ltd it is HK$0.3100 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4600. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medinet Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 8161 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4600, fair value HK$0.3100, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8161?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3100). For Medinet Group Ltd the two are HK$0.1500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medinet Group Ltd worth?
The market values Medinet Group Ltd at about HK$19.1M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4600; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8161?
Our models span a range for Medinet Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1700, base HK$0.3100, optimistic HK$0.5400 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price HK$0.4600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8161?
Medinet Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.0 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medinet Group Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −34.0%, debt of 2.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8161 from its 52-week high?
Medinet Group Ltd trades at HK$0.4600, about 41% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7800 and at the low of HK$0.4600 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medinet Group Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medinet Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price HK$0.4600, calculated fair value HK$0.3100 (−33%), Quality Score 44/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8161 calculated?
We run Medinet Group Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Medinet Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.4600. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3100, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medinet Group Ltd right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1700 to HK$0.5400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Medinet Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The market capitalisation of Medinet Group Ltd is HK$19.1M (≈ $2.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medinet Group Ltd is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The net margin of Medinet Group Ltd is −3.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medinet Group Ltd is −34.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medinet Group Ltd is −8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
The operating margin of Medinet Group Ltd is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medinet Group Ltd (8161)?
Revenue at Medinet Group Ltd is growing −18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Medinet Group Ltd (8161) carry?
The net debt of Medinet Group Ltd is HK$1.3M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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