Smart Globe Holdings (8485) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Smart Globe Holdings HK$0.96, price HK$1.38, upside -30.2%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1830 – HK$3.07 · fair‑value band HK$0.6600 – HK$1.20 · the HK$1.38 price screens above the HK$0.9600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Smart Globe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces, distributes, and prints books, novelty, and packaging products in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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Smart Globe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces, distributes, and prints books, novelty, and packaging products in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It provides a range of services, such as pre-press, printing, and finishing services, as well as custom-made and value added printing products. The company also offers box products, children books and pop-ups, journals and book products, stationery and photo albums, leather products, and oversized books. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in North Point, Hong Kong. Smart Globe Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Master Sage Limited.
Stock analysis
Smart Globe Holdings (8485) currently trades at HK$1.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9600, 30.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5200 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$1.38 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.1800, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.6600 (bear) to HK$1.20 (bull), the price of HK$1.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Smart Globe Holdings reported revenue of HK$132M in FY2019 versus HK$68.0M in FY2015, a compound +18.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$23.1M in FY2019, compounding +33.7%/yr from FY2015.
Key figures
Market cap HK$320M (≈ $40.8M) · P/S ratio 2.56 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0186 · Net margin 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% · Operating margin 20.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$125M · Revenue growth (YoY) −4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 69% fair-value upside, at −30%, 8485 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.6600Fair Value HK$0.9600Bull HK$1.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+31.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2015 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 22%
2019 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Professional & Commercial Services · 16 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/6 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets11.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.1% · Bottom 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 87
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Smart Globe Holdings (8485) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9600 versus a price of HK$1.38, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8485?
Our model-based fair value for Smart Globe Holdings is HK$0.9600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.38.
What is the quality score of 8485?
Smart Globe Holdings has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.9600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6600, optimistic scenario HK$1.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smart Globe Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.9600, about −30% upside versus a price of HK$1.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6600, optimistic scenario HK$1.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Smart Globe Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$125M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smart Globe Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +28.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8485 use?
Our models discount Smart Globe Holdings at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smart Globe Holdings that is +28.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smart Globe Holdings (8485) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Smart Globe Holdings grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies +28.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smart Globe Holdings (8485) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smart Globe Holdings (+28.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.00 %: that much free cash flow Smart Globe Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smart Globe Holdings it is HK$0.9600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smart Globe Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8485 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.38, fair value HK$0.9600, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8485?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.9600). For Smart Globe Holdings the two are HK$0.4150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smart Globe Holdings worth?
The market values Smart Globe Holdings at about HK$320M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.38; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.9600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8485?
Our models span a range for Smart Globe Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.6600, base HK$0.9600, optimistic HK$1.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 8485 from its 52-week high?
Smart Globe Holdings trades at HK$1.38, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$3.07 and 74% above the low of HK$0.7900 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.9600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smart Globe Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Fischer Chemic Limited, e-Credible Co, KG Mobilians Co, INSUN Environmental New Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smart Globe Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.38, calculated fair value HK$0.9600 (−30%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8485 calculated?
We run Smart Globe Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.9600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Smart Globe Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.38. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.9600, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smart Globe Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.6600 to HK$1.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Smart Globe Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The market capitalisation of Smart Globe Holdings is HK$320M (≈ $40.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smart Globe Holdings is 2.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Earnings per share at Smart Globe Holdings are HK$0.0186. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The net margin of Smart Globe Holdings is 17.5% (fiscal year 2019). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smart Globe Holdings is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
The operating margin of Smart Globe Holdings is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Revenue at Smart Globe Holdings is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smart Globe Holdings (8485)?
Earnings per share at Smart Globe Holdings are growing −14.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Smart Globe Holdings (8485) hold?
Smart Globe Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$40.2M net (fiscal year 2019). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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