Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC stock SAR 22.08, price SAR 54.75, upside -59.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.40 SAR – 3,168 SAR · fair‑value band 16.25 SAR – 27.60 SAR · the 54.75 SAR price screens above the 22.08 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons Co. engages in the production and sale of hollow cement blocks and bricks, and ready-mix concrete blocks. It operates through Concrete and Cement Block Sector; Real estate sector; and Other segments.
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The Concrete and Cement Block Sector segment works in selling hollow cement blocks and ready-mix concrete. Its Real Estate Sector segment is involved in buying and selling plots of land and real estate. The Other segment offers mining, quarrying, transportation, and storage services.
The company engages in the operation of sewage treatment networks and facilities; general construction of residential and prefabricated buildings; restoration, demolition, and removal of residential and non-residential buildings; building finishing, including installation of interior ceilings and partitions; cladding of walls with wood; installation of ceramics, tiles, marble, and stone; plastering and rendering works; painting and coating works for interior and exterior buildings; installation of glass and mirrors; surveying works; and cleaning of new buildings after construction.
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons Co. was founded in 1977 and is based in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) currently trades at 54.75 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.08 SAR, 59.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 50.02 SAR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 54.75 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6.89 SAR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 16.25 SAR (bear) to 27.60 SAR (bull), the price of 54.75 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC reported revenue of 80.9M SAR in FY2025 versus 53.3M SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was 7.5M SAR in FY2025, compounding −4.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 318M SAR (≈ $84.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 41.8 · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) 1.31 SAR · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 209% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −60%, 9514 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear16.25 SARFair Value 22.08 SARBull27.60 SAR
Price 54.75 SAR · Upside -59.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.08 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 14%
2025 sits 421% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.3% a year for the price.
Compare Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.94× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow286.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9514
Frequently asked questions
Is Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.08 SAR versus a price of 54.75 SAR, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9514?
Our model-based fair value for Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 22.08 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54.75 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9514?
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.08 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.25 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.60 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.08 SAR, about −60% upside versus a price of 54.75 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 16.25 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.60 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 80.6M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC would have to grow free cash flow by +55.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9514 use?
Our models discount Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC that is +55.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +55.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (+55.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.70 %: that much free cash flow Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC it is 22.08 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 54.75 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 9514 trades above its calculated fair value: price 54.75 SAR, fair value 22.08 SAR, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9514?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54.75 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.08 SAR). For Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC the two are 32.67 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC worth?
The market values Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC at about 318M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 54.75 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 22.08 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9514?
Our models span a range for Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC: cautious scenario 16.25 SAR, base 22.08 SAR, optimistic 27.60 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 54.75 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9514?
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.08 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 20.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9514 from its 52-week high?
Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC trades at 54.75 SAR, about 3% below its 52-week high of 56.55 SAR and 209% above the low of 17.69 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.08 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 54.75 SAR, calculated fair value 22.08 SAR (−60%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9514 calculated?
We run Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.08 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 54.75 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 22.08 SAR, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (27.60 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The market capitalisation of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 318M SAR (≈ $84.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 3.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Earnings per share at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC are 1.31 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The net margin of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
The operating margin of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Revenue at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is growing −15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514)?
Earnings per share at Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC are growing −2.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC (9514) carry?
The net debt of Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons CoSCJSC is 17.5M SAR (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 15.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026