Paper Home Company (9576) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Paper Home Company stock SAR 25.41, price SAR 34.00, upside -25.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range 24.38 SAR – 67.25 SAR · fair‑value band 15.06 SAR – 40.90 SAR · the 34.00 SAR price screens above the 25.41 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Paper Home Company engages in manufacture and sale of corrugated cardboard products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company offers point-of-sale displays, die cut boxes, wrap-around boxes, trays, regular slotted containers, jumbo boxes, half slotted containers, mill run sheers, and dividers and pads; as well as C, B, E, BC, and BE corrugated flutes.
It also manufactures folded or single cartons, paper bags, plates and cups, molds, sheets, and filter paper from paper pulp. Paper Home Company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Paper Home Company (9576) currently trades at 34.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.41 SAR, 25.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 56.05 SAR per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 34.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 15.81 SAR, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 15.06 SAR (bear) to 40.90 SAR (bull), the price of 34.00 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Paper Home Company reported revenue of 97.6M SAR in FY2025 versus 62.5M SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.8M SAR in FY2025, compounding +17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 204M SAR (≈ $54.4M) Micro · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 1.84 · EPS (TTM) 3.65 SAR · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1% · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −25%, 9576 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear15.06 SARFair Value 25.41 SARBull40.90 SAR
Price 34.00 SAR · Upside -25.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.04 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 14%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 265 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.84× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow28.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)87· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paper Home Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9576
Frequently asked questions
Is Paper Home Company (9576) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.41 SAR versus a price of 34.00 SAR, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9576?
Our model-based fair value for Paper Home Company is 25.41 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 34.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9576?
Paper Home Company has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paper Home Company (9576)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.41 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.06 SAR, optimistic scenario 40.90 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paper Home Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.41 SAR, about −25% upside versus a price of 34.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15.06 SAR, optimistic scenario 40.90 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paper Home Company (9576)?
Paper Home Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 111M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paper Home Company (9576)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paper Home Company would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9576 use?
Our models discount Paper Home Company at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paper Home Company that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paper Home Company (9576) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paper Home Company grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paper Home Company (9576) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paper Home Company (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.47 %: that much free cash flow Paper Home Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paper Home Company (9576)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paper Home Company it is 25.41 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 34.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paper Home Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9576 trades above its calculated fair value: price 34.00 SAR, fair value 25.41 SAR, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9576?
No. The price is what the market pays today (34.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.41 SAR). For Paper Home Company the two are 8.59 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paper Home Company worth?
The market values Paper Home Company at about 204M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 34.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 25.41 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9576?
Our models span a range for Paper Home Company: cautious scenario 15.06 SAR, base 25.41 SAR, optimistic 40.90 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 34.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9576?
Paper Home Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 25.41 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paper Home Company (9576)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paper Home Company (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9576 from its 52-week high?
Paper Home Company trades at 34.00 SAR, about 28% below its 52-week high of 47.40 SAR and 6% above the low of 32.20 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.41 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paper Home Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Packaging Corporation, Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Amcor plc, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paper Home Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 34.00 SAR, calculated fair value 25.41 SAR (−25%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9576 calculated?
We run Paper Home Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.41 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Paper Home Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 34.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 25.41 SAR, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paper Home Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide (15.06 SAR to 40.90 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Paper Home Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The market capitalisation of Paper Home Company is 204M SAR (≈ $54.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paper Home Company is 1.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paper Home Company (9576)?
Earnings per share at Paper Home Company are 3.65 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The net margin of Paper Home Company is 19.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paper Home Company is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paper Home Company (9576)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paper Home Company is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paper Home Company (9576)?
The operating margin of Paper Home Company is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paper Home Company (9576)?
Revenue at Paper Home Company is growing +29.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paper Home Company (9576)?
Earnings per share at Paper Home Company are growing +61.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Paper Home Company (9576) carry?
The net debt of Paper Home Company is 2.2M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 29, 2026