EN DE

Bilibili Inc (9626) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$55.7B (≈ $7.1B) · ISIN KYG1098A1013

What is Bilibili Inc really worth?

BI Bilibili Inc 9626 · HK
PriceHK$129.10
Fair ValueHK$59.96
Upside−53.6%
Quality59/100

A solid business, but trading 115% above our fair value of HK$59.96.

Watch Bilibili Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +19.8 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 4.6% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range HK$48.38 – HK$71.19

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$67.20 to HK$59.96 (−10.8%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −12.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$71.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$979.00 HK$67.90 Fair Value HK$59.96 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$67.90 – HK$979.00 · fair‑value band HK$48.38 – HK$71.19 · the HK$129.10 price screens above the HK$59.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Bilibili Inc (9626) currently trades at HK$129.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$59.96, implying the stock looks roughly 53.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Bilibili Inc generated revenue of HK$30.8B at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$48.38 (bear case) to HK$71.19 (bull case); at HK$129.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −54%, 9626 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$4.19 per share, which is 7.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$218.46 HK$334.10 HK$702.37 75
Growth DCF HK$206.47 HK$393.26 HK$699.33 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$122.26 HK$183.47 HK$302.73 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$218.46 HK$334.10 HK$702.37 75
Owner Earnings HK$70.65 HK$139.32 HK$283.50 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$90.17 HK$118.58 HK$175.93 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$122.26 HK$183.47 HK$302.73 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$104.64 HK$176.13 HK$267.22 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$127.62 HK$201.61 HK$230.34 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$152.06 HK$270.71 HK$462.39 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$139.20 HK$232.76 HK$371.89 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$17.81 HK$124.17 HK$174.25 60
Lynch FV HK$63.73 HK$91.04 HK$118.35 58
PEG = 1.0 HK$63.73 HK$91.04 HK$118.35 55
EPV HK$37.95 HK$41.48 HK$44.56 72
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$43.20 HK$57.60 HK$72.01 61
P/S Multiple HK$33.38 HK$44.51 HK$55.64 56
P/B Multiple HK$33.38 HK$44.51 HK$55.64 53
EV/EBIT HK$46.41 HK$56.28 HK$66.15 65
EV/EBITDA HK$83.35 HK$105.53 HK$127.71 66
EV/Revenue HK$39.26 HK$48.88 HK$58.50 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$17.54 HK$23.51 HK$35.09 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$206.47 HK$393.26 HK$699.33 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$96.28 HK$133.67 HK$213.88 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$28.80 HK$30.57 HK$33.56 69
ROIC Compounder HK$41.76 HK$51.83 HK$61.61 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$84.70 HK$121.00 HK$157.30 66

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$183.47) versus Asset-Based (HK$23.51). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

Notify me when 9626 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 36.8 as of Jun 7, 2026
P/S ratio 1.45 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$6.29 price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.8
Net margin 3.9% FY2025
Return on equity 9.4% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −9.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 2.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$30.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.7% 3y avg +10.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +436%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$5.3B FY2025
Net cash HK$2.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 28
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting, occupationally generated videos, audio drama on Maoer, comics on Bilibili Comic, PUGV …

Full company description

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting, occupationally generated videos, audio drama on Maoer, comics on Bilibili Comic, PUGV content in fan charging program and premium courses, and Bilibili premium courses and community-based avatar decoration. The company also provides advertising services; and IP derivatives and other services. In addition, it engages in the business and technology development activities; e-commerce business; and video, comics, and game distribution activities. Bilibili Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bilibili Inc reported revenue of 29.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 19.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$29.6B
Latest YoY
+10.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+71.9%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Revenue +11.1%/yr
FY21 19.4B CNY
FY22 21.9B CNY
FY23 22.5B CNY
FY24 26.8B CNY
FY25 29.6B CNY
Net income
FY21 −6.8B CNY
FY22 −7.5B CNY
FY23 −4.8B CNY
FY24 −1.3B CNY
FY25 1.2B CNY

9626 screens 115% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Bilibili Inc · Fair Value
HK$59.96 −115%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bilibili Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9626

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 156 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −54% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.58× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.81× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE34 · sector 31
PAST37 · sector 10
HEALTH85 · sector 98
DIVIDEND0 · sector 36

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL $340.65 $145.14 -57%
Meta Platforms, Inc META $571.10 $534.91 -6%
Tencent Holdings 0700 HK$455.20 HK$449.03 -1%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $547.51 $211.87 -61%
Reddit, Inc RDDT $153.29 $39.59 -74%
Baidu, Inc 89888 HK$79.10 HK$28.84 -64%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 81024 HK$34.50 HK$63.28 +83%
NAVER Corporation 035420 215,500 KRW 231,585 KRW +7%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$35.14 HK$66.77 +90%
REA Group REA A$177.42 A$88.53 -50%

Compare Bilibili Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Communication Services stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Fama-French 3-Factor Model Calculator Run the Fama-French 3-factor model in seconds: expected return from the market, size and value factors - free, with formula, betas and an example. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is Bilibili Inc (9626) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$59.96 versus a price of HK$129.10, about −54% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9626?
Our model-based fair value for Bilibili Inc is HK$59.96 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$129.10.
What is the quality score of 9626?
Bilibili Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Bilibili Inc (9626)?
Bilibili Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$30.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9626?
The net profit margin of Bilibili Inc is about 4.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Free · no account needed

Watch Bilibili Inc in the live analysis

One click puts Bilibili Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.