Shiyue Daotian Group Co Ltd (9676) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$4.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$9.41 to HK$9.89 (+5.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 136% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range HK$3.66 – HK$24.66 · fair‑value band HK$7.33 – HK$12.36 · the HK$4.19 price screens below the HK$9.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Shiyue Daotian Group Co Ltd (9676) currently trades at HK$4.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.89, implying the stock looks roughly 136.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shiyue Daotian Group Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$6.8B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 19.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at HK$614M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$7.33 (bear case) to HK$12.36 (bull case); at HK$4.19, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 136%, 9676 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$10.72) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.41). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shiyue Daotian Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pantry staple food in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Rice Products; Corn Products; Whole Grain, Bean, and Other Products; and Dried Food and Other Products.
Full company description
Shiyue Daotian Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pantry staple food in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Rice Products; Corn Products; Whole Grain, Bean, and Other Products; and Dried Food and Other Products. The Rice Products segment produces pre-packaged rice products of different varieties, such as wuchang rice, daoxiang rice, long grain rice, and komachi rice. The Corn Products segment produces pre-packaged corn products, such as yellow, white, black, and multicolored glutinous corn, fruit corn, fruit corn kernels, as well as dried and peeled corn kernels. The Whole Grain, Bean, and Other Products segment provides pre-packaged mixed brown rice, millet, red bean, sesame, and corn and seed products. The Dried Food and Other Products segment offers pre-packaged wood ear mushrooms, snow fungus mushrooms, lotus seeds, and lily bulbs as well as by-products, such as bran, husk, and fractioned rice. The company is also involved in the investment activities and provision of technology services. It sells its products under the Shiyue Daotian, Firewood Courtyard, and Sunshine Family brand names through e-commerce platform, online self-operated stores, modern retail channels, distribution network, and direct to customers. The company was formerly known as Shiyue Daotian Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shiyue Daotian Group Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.8B in FY2025 versus HK$3.6B in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$428M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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