Zai Lab Ltd (9688) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Zai Lab Ltd HK$3.91, price HK$19.65, upside -80.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$10.62 – HK$139.70 · fair‑value band HK$2.58 – HK$4.88 · the HK$19.65 price screens above the HK$3.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zai Lab Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing products that address medical conditions in the areas of oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and infectious diseases.
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Zai Lab Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing products that address medical conditions in the areas of oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and infectious diseases. Its commercial products include Zejula, an orally administered poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase 1/2 inhibitor for treating ovarian cancer; VYVGART, a human IgG1 antibody fragment for generalized myasthenia gravis and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy; NUZYRA for community-acquired bacterial pneumonia and acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections; Optune for glioblastoma multiforme; Qinlock for gastrointestinal stromal tumors; Xacduro for treating hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia caused by a cinetobacter baumannii-calcoaceticus complex; and Augtyro for the treatment of ROS proto-oncogene 1 and non-small cell lung cancer. The company has a strategic collaboration with Tesaro, Inc., NovoCure Ltd., Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, LLC, Paratek Bermuda Ltd., argent BV, Turning Point Therapeutics, Inc., Entasis Therapeutics Holdings Inc., Karuna Therapeutics, Inc., Pfizer Inc., Amgen Inc., and with Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Pudong, China.
Stock analysis
Zai Lab Ltd (9688) currently trades at HK$19.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.91, 80.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$2.58 (bear) to HK$4.88 (bull), the price of HK$19.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zai Lab Ltd reported revenue of $461M in FY2025 versus $144M in FY2021, a compound +33.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$176M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$21.5B (≈ $2.7B) · P/S ratio 37.3 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1700 · Net margin −38.1% · Return on equity −24.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −31.1% · Operating margin −69.7% · Revenue (TTM) $453M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −80%, 9688 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.58Fair Value HK$3.91Bull HK$4.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+221.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−616.4% (2020) → −49.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Above median
Fair Value upside−80.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−13.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−39.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−69.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.91 versus a price of HK$19.65, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9688?
Our model-based fair value for Zai Lab Ltd is HK$3.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$19.65.
What is the quality score of 9688?
Zai Lab Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.58, optimistic scenario HK$4.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zai Lab Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.91, about −80% upside versus a price of HK$19.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.58, optimistic scenario HK$4.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Zai Lab Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $453M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zai Lab Ltd it is HK$3.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$19.65. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zai Lab Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9688 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$19.65, fair value HK$3.91, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9688?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$19.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.91). For Zai Lab Ltd the two are HK$15.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zai Lab Ltd worth?
The market values Zai Lab Ltd at about HK$21.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$19.65; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9688?
Our models span a range for Zai Lab Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.58, base HK$3.91, optimistic HK$4.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$19.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zai Lab Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −24.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9688 from its 52-week high?
Zai Lab Ltd trades at HK$19.65, about 27% below its 52-week high of HK$27.06 and 58% above the low of HK$12.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zai Lab Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zai Lab Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$19.65, calculated fair value HK$3.91 (−80%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9688 calculated?
We run Zai Lab Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Zai Lab Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$19.65. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.91, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zai Lab Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.58 to HK$4.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Zai Lab Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The market capitalisation of Zai Lab Ltd is HK$21.5B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zai Lab Ltd is 37.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Earnings per share at Zai Lab Ltd are HK$−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The net margin of Zai Lab Ltd is −38.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zai Lab Ltd is −24.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zai Lab Ltd is −31.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
The operating margin of Zai Lab Ltd is −69.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zai Lab Ltd (9688)?
Revenue at Zai Lab Ltd is growing −6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Zai Lab Ltd (9688) generate?
The free cash flow of Zai Lab Ltd is −$159M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Zai Lab Ltd (9688) hold?
Zai Lab Ltd holds more cash than debt, $455M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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