Data-driven stock valuation

Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Chery Automobile Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

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Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$138B (≈ $17.6B)

At a glance

CA Chery Automobile Co Ltd 9973 · HK

PriceHK$24.90

Fair ValueHK$36.92

Upside+48.3%

Quality45/100

Below-average quality, trading 33% below our fair value of HK$36.92.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is HK$36.92 per share against a price of HK$24.90, so the fair value sits 48% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +46.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·3.45% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

!Moderate moat 56/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!The models disagree: range HK$28.32 to HK$97.89

Evidence: Medium Range HK$28.32 to HK$97.89

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −2.5% over the past month.

This is the short version. In the app for Chery Automobile Co Ltd:

26 models, one by oneBear HK$28.32 to bull HK$97.89 5-year chart + forecastprice, fair value, trend, scenarios Quality 45/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$28.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The model range is unusually wide (HK$28.32 to HK$97.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (11 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range HK$23.31 – HK$32.25 · fair‑value band HK$28.32 – HK$97.89 · the HK$24.90 price screens below the HK$36.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) currently trades at HK$24.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.92, implying the stock looks roughly 32.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$106.53 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$24.90 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.13, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chery Automobile Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$298B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$20.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Scenario range: HK$28.32 (bear) to HK$97.89 (bull), the price of HK$24.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 48%, 9973 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$49.09 HK$71.49 HK$142.80 72

EPV HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 72

Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 71

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$49.09 HK$71.49 HK$142.80 72

Owner Earnings HK$43.55 HK$86.28 HK$175.98 68

5Y Revenue Exit HK$38.05 HK$58.19 HK$99.71 67

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$41.92 HK$66.12 HK$112.91 69

5Y P/E Exit HK$61.78 HK$128.75 HK$219.91 64

10Y Revenue Exit HK$40.58 HK$74.32 HK$97.87 63

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.36 HK$82.50 HK$151.60 61

10Y P/E Exit HK$58.77 HK$124.36 HK$239.87 57

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$22.69 HK$158.25 HK$222.07 58

Lynch FV HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 56

PEG = 1.0 HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 52

EPV HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$6.43 HK$13.37 HK$21.22 61

DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.43 HK$11.28 HK$14.04 62

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$55.06 HK$73.41 HK$91.77 61

P/S Multiple HK$42.55 HK$56.73 HK$70.91 56

P/B Multiple HK$27.44 HK$36.58 HK$45.73 53

EV/EBIT HK$42.28 HK$53.02 HK$63.76 65

EV/EBITDA HK$38.52 HK$48.00 HK$57.49 66

EV/Revenue HK$31.77 HK$41.08 HK$50.39 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.57 HK$6.13 HK$9.15 52

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 71

Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.05 HK$65.13 HK$112.09 66

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$26.49 HK$40.23 HK$506.30 60

ROIC Compounder HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 68

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$74.57 HK$106.53 HK$138.49 63

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$106.53) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.13). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 3, 2026

P/S ratio 0.40 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$2.47 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3

Dividend yield 3.5% payout 34.8%

Net margin 6.3% FY2025

Return on equity 47.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% avg 4y

Operating margin 8.5% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$298B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −3.4% 3y avg +46.7%

EPS growth (YoY) −15.6%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$12.9B FY2025

Net cash HK$20.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 60

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 34

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 38

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 53

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 30

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 53

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 46

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 16

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 48

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services. It offers its products under the CHERY, JETOUR, EXEED, iCAR, and LUXEED brand names. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 293B CNY in FY2025 versus 92.6B CNY in FY2022, a compound +46.7%/yr. Reported net income was 18.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +43.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 90/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$293B

Latest YoY

+0.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+46.7%

Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +13.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+10.0%

Dividend yield3.5%

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7.6% (2022) → 4.5% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop93% (2025) · in HKD

⚠ Final year 2025 sits 61% above trend (one-off), rate on operating basis

Revenue +46.7%/yr

FY22 92.6B CNY

FY23 163B CNY

FY24 293B CNY

FY25 293B CNY

Net income +43.5%/yr

FY22 6.3B CNY

FY23 12.0B CNY

FY24 14.1B CNY

FY25 18.5B CNY

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Chery Automobile Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$36.92 +33%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9973" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Chery Automobile Co Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$36.92</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+33%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chery Automobile Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9973

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation

Quality Score 45 · Below median

Fair Value upside +46% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 6% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −3% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.08× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 2.85× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.49× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 5.7× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Chery Automobile Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-17.0 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 3 years+46.7 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %

FCF yield on price9.32 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.8 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE98 · sector 26

FUTURE0 · sector 30

PAST100 · sector 21

HEALTH96 · sector 94

DIVIDEND69 · sector 50

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM	$188.78	$235.50	+25%
BYD Company 81211	HK$73.50	HK$46.64	−37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380	418,500 KRW	567,393 KRW	+36%
Ferrari N.V RACE	€346.00	€167.67	−52%
General Motors Company GM	$87.76	$52.69	−40%
Ford Motor Company F	$14.00	$11.51	−18%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG	€47.69	€106.16	+123%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911	€43.91	€17.34	−61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI	₹12,694	₹8,236	−35%
Volkswagen AG VOW	€81.65	€248.34	+204%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.92 versus a price of HK$24.90, about +48% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 9973?

Our model-based fair value for Chery Automobile Co Ltd is HK$36.92 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$24.90.

What is the quality score of 9973?

Chery Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$36.92 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$28.32, optimistic scenario HK$97.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$36.92, about +48% upside versus a price of HK$24.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$28.32, optimistic scenario HK$97.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?

Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$298B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9973?

The net profit margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Chery Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Chery Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).

What growth is priced into Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chery Automobile Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +46.7 % per year. As of Aug 19, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9973 use?

Our models discount Chery Automobile Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is the intrinsic value of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chery Automobile Co Ltd it is HK$36.92 per share (as of Aug 19, 2026), against a price of HK$24.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Aug 19, 2026, 9973 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$24.90, fair value HK$36.92, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 9973?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$24.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$36.92). For Chery Automobile Co Ltd the two are HK$12.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Chery Automobile Co Ltd worth?

The market values Chery Automobile Co Ltd at about HK$138B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 19, 2026). Per share that is HK$24.90; our models calculate a fair value of HK$36.92 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9973?

Our models span a range for Chery Automobile Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$28.32, base HK$36.92, optimistic HK$97.89 per share (as of Aug 19, 2026, price HK$24.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 9973?

Chery Automobile Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Aug 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$36.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.7.

How solid is the balance sheet of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?

Balance-sheet figures for Chery Automobile Co Ltd (as of Aug 19, 2026): return on equity 47.1%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 9973 from its 52-week high?

Chery Automobile Co Ltd trades at HK$24.90, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$33.69 and 10% above the low of HK$22.73 (as of Aug 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$36.92 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Chery Automobile Co Ltd?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Aug 19, 2026: price HK$24.90, calculated fair value HK$36.92 (+48%), Quality Score 45/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 9973 calculated?

We run Chery Automobile Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$36.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Chery Automobile Co Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.

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