Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chery Automobile Co Ltd HK$38.04, price HK$24.30, upside +56.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range HK$23.28 – HK$32.25 · fair‑value band HK$22.78 – HK$66.53 · the HK$24.30 price screens below the HK$38.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services.
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Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services. It offers its products under the CHERY, JETOUR, EXEED, iCAR, and LUXEED brand names. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) currently trades at HK$24.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$38.04, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$159.05 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$24.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.84, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$22.78 (bear) to HK$66.53 (bull), the price of HK$24.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 293B CNY in FY2025 versus 29.5B CNY in FY2017, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was 18.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +68.4%/yr from FY2017. FY2017 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap HK$141B (≈ $18.0B) · P/E ratio 6.8 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) HK$2.49 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 43.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 57%, 9973 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$22.78Fair Value HK$38.04Bull HK$66.53
Price HK$24.30 · Upside +56.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.24 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.7%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
’15
’16
’17
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2015 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 5%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 61% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.1% a year for the price and +12.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Chery Automobile Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+56.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)43.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chery Automobile Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9973
Frequently asked questions
Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$38.04 versus a price of HK$24.30, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9973?
Our model-based fair value for Chery Automobile Co Ltd is HK$38.04 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$24.30.
What is the quality score of 9973?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$38.04 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$22.78, optimistic scenario HK$66.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$38.04, about +57% upside versus a price of HK$24.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$22.78, optimistic scenario HK$66.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 302B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Chery Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chery Automobile Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 8 years revenue grew +33.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9973 use?
Our models discount Chery Automobile Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chery Automobile Co Ltd that is -19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) delivered so far?
Over the past 8 years revenue at Chery Automobile Co Ltd grew +33.2 % a year. The price currently implies -19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chery Automobile Co Ltd (-19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.12 %: that much free cash flow Chery Automobile Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chery Automobile Co Ltd it is HK$38.04 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$24.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 9973 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$24.30, fair value HK$38.04, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9973?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$24.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$38.04). For Chery Automobile Co Ltd the two are HK$13.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chery Automobile Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chery Automobile Co Ltd at about HK$141B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$24.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$38.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9973?
Our models span a range for Chery Automobile Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$22.78, base HK$38.04, optimistic HK$66.53 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price HK$24.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9973?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$38.04 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.0 (reported for FY2025: 5.6). Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chery Automobile Co Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 43.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9973 from its 52-week high?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd trades at HK$24.30, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$32.25 and 4% above the low of HK$23.28 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$38.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chery Automobile Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$24.30, calculated fair value HK$38.04 (+57%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9973 calculated?
We run Chery Automobile Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$38.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Chery Automobile Co Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$24.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$38.04, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chery Automobile Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$22.78 to HK$66.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Chery Automobile Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The market capitalisation of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is HK$141B (≈ $18.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 0.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Earnings per share at Chery Automobile Co Ltd are HK$2.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The dividend yield of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 3.5% (payout 22.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 21.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The net margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 43.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
The operating margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Revenue at Chery Automobile Co Ltd is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +46.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Earnings per share at Chery Automobile Co Ltd are growing −18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) hold?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 20.3B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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