Ferrari N.V (RACE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $66.3B
Ferrari N.V
RACE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $199.42 to $228.05 (+14.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($285.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $162.13 – $511.75 · fair‑value band $171.04 – $285.06 · the $407.28 price screens above the $228.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ferrari N.V (RACE) currently trades at $407.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $228.05, implying the stock looks roughly 44.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ferrari N.V generated revenue of $7.2B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.0%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $171.04 (bear case) to $285.06 (bull case); at $407.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at -44%, RACE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($232.31) versus Asset-Based ($14.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars.
Full company description
Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars. The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition, it operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further, the company provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ferrari N.V reported revenue of $7.1B in FY2025 versus $4.3B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025, compounding +17.7%/yr from FY2021.
RACE screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ferrari Buyers Keep Splurging on Custom Supercars—And It's Boosting Profits
- Is Ferrari a Buy After Its Latest Earnings Report?
- Ferrari's Q2 Filing Says Plenty About the Luce EV — Just Not What You'd Expect
- Hagerty (HGTY) Could Be 23% Below Fair Value After Rare Ferrari Enzo Auction News
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 145,000 KRW | 350,994 KRW | +142% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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