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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. BRL 91.27, price BRL 43.68, upside +109.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · BR · Home US

AP Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

A2RR34 · SA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value R$91.27 · Strongly undervalued (+109.0%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +50.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -48.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$58.02 R$7.51 Fair Value R$91.27 Feb 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

55‑month range R$7.51 – R$58.02 · fair‑value band R$46.71 – R$130.89 · the R$43.68 price screens below the R$91.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States.

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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.

Stock analysis

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) currently trades at R$43.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$91.27, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$111.95 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$43.68 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$11.58, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R$46.71 (bear) to R$130.89 (bull), the price of R$43.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $243M in FY2022, a compound +50.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$5.9B (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 10.2 · EPS (TTM) R$−11.76 · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −42.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.6% · Operating margin −192% · Revenue (TTM) $622M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 109%, A2RR34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$46.71 Fair Value R$91.27 Bull R$130.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$96.50 R$149.29 R$307.04 71
Growth DCF R$89.25 R$167.59 R$290.69 70
EPV R$4.74 R$7.89 R$10.51 69
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$96.50 R$149.29 R$307.04 71
5Y Revenue Exit R$37.68 R$63.62 R$116.69 65
5Y EBITDA Exit R$46.74 R$81.92 R$150.33 67
10Y Revenue Exit R$56.86 R$111.95 R$136.68 62
10Y EBITDA Exit R$63.89 R$129.75 R$233.86 61
Earnings-Based
EPV R$4.74 R$7.89 R$10.51 69
Multiples
EV/EBIT R$30.92 R$47.33 R$63.74 65
EV/EBITDA R$22.50 R$36.10 R$49.70 66
EV/Revenue R$7.53 R$18.60 R$29.67 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$8.64 R$11.58 R$17.28 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$89.25 R$167.59 R$290.69 70
Rev-Margin DCF R$42.58 R$75.59 R$145.73 64
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder R$4.74 R$7.89 R$10.51 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−73.4% (2022) → 11.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−31.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price and −33.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−37.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−37.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)−32.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)−27.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)−22.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 621 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside −56.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −7.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −48.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −191.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −86.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.25× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.44× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.83× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)38 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · Fair Value
R$91.27 +52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A2RR34

Frequently asked questions

Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$91.27 versus a price of R$43.68, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of A2RR34?
Our model-based fair value for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is R$91.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$43.68.
What is the quality score of A2RR34?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$91.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$46.71, optimistic scenario R$130.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$91.27, about +109% upside versus a price of R$43.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$46.71, optimistic scenario R$130.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $622M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +50.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of A2RR34 use?
Our models discount Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. grew +50.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.82 %: that much free cash flow Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. it is R$91.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$43.68. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, A2RR34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$43.68, fair value R$91.27, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A2RR34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$43.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$91.27). For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. the two are R$47.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. worth?
The market values Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at about R$5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$43.68; our models calculate a fair value of R$91.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A2RR34?
Our models span a range for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: cautious scenario R$46.71, base R$91.27, optimistic R$130.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$43.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −42.4%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A2RR34 from its 52-week high?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at R$43.68, about 25% below its 52-week high of R$58.02 and 88% above the low of R$23.24 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$91.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$43.68, calculated fair value R$91.27 (+109%), Quality Score 46/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A2RR34 calculated?
We run Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$91.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$43.68. Our model-based fair value is R$91.27, about +109% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$46.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (R$46.71 to R$130.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is R$5.9B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is 10.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. are R$−11.76. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is −42.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is −24.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
The operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is −192% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34)?
Revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is growing −86.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (A2RR34) carry?
The net debt of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is $166M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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