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Ambev S.A (ABEVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Ambev S.A MXN 72.55, price MXN 51.27, upside +41.5%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Ambev S.A
ABEVN · MXUndervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.
✓Fair value 72.55 MXN · Undervalued (+41.5%)
✓Quality 79/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!1.7% dividend yield · Payout strained
✓Wide moat 75/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 34.45 MXN – 110.23 MXN · fair‑value band 53.59 MXN – 90.69 MXN · the 51.27 MXN price screens below the 72.55 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.
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Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.
Stock analysis
Ambev S.A (ABEVN) currently trades at 51.27 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 72.55 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 84.98 MXN per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 51.27 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 13.26 MXN, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 53.59 MXN (bear) to 90.69 MXN (bull), the price of 51.27 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ambev S.A reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$72.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 801B MXN (≈ $43.9B) · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 2.68 · EPS (TTM) 3.36 MXN · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 42%, ABEVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 53.59 MXN
Fair Value 72.55 MXN
Bull 90.69 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.89 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
61.30 MXN
93.45 MXN
142.66 MXN
80
Growth DCF
62.26 MXN
90.66 MXN
131.45 MXN
78
Owner Earnings
55.88 MXN
84.98 MXN
129.53 MXN
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
61.30 MXN
93.45 MXN
142.66 MXN
80
Owner Earnings
55.88 MXN
84.98 MXN
129.53 MXN
76
5Y Revenue Exit
36.99 MXN
50.75 MXN
67.58 MXN
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
61.18 MXN
96.11 MXN
136.68 MXN
75
5Y P/E Exit
55.94 MXN
86.28 MXN
117.96 MXN
71
10Y Revenue Exit
44.62 MXN
59.27 MXN
77.81 MXN
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
60.69 MXN
90.80 MXN
130.67 MXN
68
10Y P/E Exit
57.34 MXN
83.97 MXN
116.35 MXN
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
23.73 MXN
74.65 MXN
99.39 MXN
64
Lynch FV
16.34 MXN
23.34 MXN
30.35 MXN
61
PEG = 1.0
16.34 MXN
23.34 MXN
30.35 MXN
57
EPV
47.20 MXN
54.38 MXN
60.66 MXN
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
42.29 MXN
87.93 MXN
139.49 MXN
66
DDM Multi-Stage
42.29 MXN
70.27 MXN
92.28 MXN
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
54.96 MXN
73.28 MXN
91.59 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
23.83 MXN
31.78 MXN
39.72 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
44.49 MXN
59.32 MXN
74.15 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
68.19 MXN
89.55 MXN
110.90 MXN
66
EV/EBITDA
68.11 MXN
89.44 MXN
110.77 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
24.99 MXN
33.93 MXN
42.86 MXN
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
9.89 MXN
13.26 MXN
19.79 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
62.26 MXN
90.66 MXN
131.45 MXN
78
Rev-Margin DCF
36.99 MXN
51.44 MXN
68.38 MXN
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
22.25 MXN
27.06 MXN
37.69 MXN
76
ROIC Compounder
50.12 MXN
61.59 MXN
74.42 MXN
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
45.61 MXN
65.16 MXN
84.71 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
79/100
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Profitability
61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
Watch ABEVN, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Ambev SA's Dividend Analysis
- Ambev SA (ABEV) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Beer Growth and Digital Expansion ...
- Ambev (ABEV) Moves to Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade
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Values & ESG
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Alcohol
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10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €64.56 | €61.20 | −5% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €69.66 | €69.18 | −1% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $118.85 | $28.57 | −76% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €65.30 | €64.09 | −2% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $112.99 | $183.71 | +63% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥49.89 | ¥63.71 | +28% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP | $35.95 | $79.18 | +120% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥10.78 | ¥11.10 | +3% |
| United Breweries Limited UBL | ₹1,158 | ₹141.82 | −88% |
| Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW | kr 411.40 | kr 662.99 | +61% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ambev S.A (ABEVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 72.55 MXN versus a price of 51.27 MXN, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ABEVN?
Our model-based fair value for Ambev S.A is 72.55 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 51.27 MXN.
What is the quality score of ABEVN?
Ambev S.A has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 72.55 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 53.59 MXN, optimistic scenario 90.69 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambev S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 72.55 MXN, about +42% upside versus a price of 51.27 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 53.59 MXN, optimistic scenario 90.69 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Ambev S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$88.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Ambev S.A pay a dividend?
Ambev S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambev S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABEVN use?
Our models discount Ambev S.A at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambev S.A that is -1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambev S.A (ABEVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambev S.A grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies -1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambev S.A (ABEVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambev S.A (-1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.64 %: that much free cash flow Ambev S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambev S.A it is 72.55 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 51.27 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambev S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ABEVN trades below its calculated fair value: price 51.27 MXN, fair value 72.55 MXN, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABEVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (51.27 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (72.55 MXN). For Ambev S.A the two are 21.28 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambev S.A worth?
The market values Ambev S.A at about 801B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 51.27 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 72.55 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABEVN?
Our models span a range for Ambev S.A: cautious scenario 53.59 MXN, base 72.55 MXN, optimistic 90.69 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 51.27 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ABEVN from its 52-week high?
Ambev S.A trades at 51.27 MXN, about 12% below its 52-week high of 58.55 MXN and 32% above the low of 38.85 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 72.55 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambev S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambev S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 51.27 MXN, calculated fair value 72.55 MXN (+42%), Quality Score 79/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABEVN calculated?
We run Ambev S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 72.55 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambev S.A currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 51.27 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 72.55 MXN, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambev S.A right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (53.59 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Ambev S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The market capitalisation of Ambev S.A is 801B MXN (≈ $43.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ambev S.A is 15.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambev S.A is 2.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A are 3.36 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The dividend yield of Ambev S.A is 1.7% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The net margin of Ambev S.A is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambev S.A is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambev S.A is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
The operating margin of Ambev S.A is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Revenue at Ambev S.A is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambev S.A (ABEVN)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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