Arcosa Inc (ACA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arcosa Inc stock $69.34, price $149, that is 53.5% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.15 – $149.15 · fair‑value band $34.53 – $111.40 · the $149.15 price screens above the $69.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Arcosa in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Arcosa is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Arcosa, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure-related products and solutions for the construction, engineered structures, and transportation markets in the United States.
Show moreShow less
The company operates through three segments: Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products.
The Construction Products segment offers natural and recycled aggregates; specialty materials; and construction site support equipment, including trench shields and shoring products for residential and non-residential construction, and specialty and other products, as well as for infrastructure construction.
The Engineered Structures segment offers utility structures, wind towers, traffic and lighting structures, and telecommunication structures for electricity transmission and distribution, wind power generation, highway road construction, and wireless communication markets.
This segment also sells its products to contractors and distributors serving state Departments of Transportation and state and municipality agencies.
The Transportation Products segment offers inland barges, fiberglass barge covers, winches, marine hardware, and other transportation and industrial equipment to the commercial marine transportation companies, lessors, and industrial shippers.
Arcosa, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Arcosa Inc (ACA) currently trades at $149.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $69.34, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $72.63 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $149.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.14, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.53 (bear) to $111.40 (bull), the price of $149.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arcosa Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $208M in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.3B Mid · P/E ratio 36.8 · P/S ratio 2.66 · EPS (TTM) $4.05 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −54%, ACA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$34.53Fair Value $69.34Bull$111.40
Price $149.15 · Downside -53.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 33 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.1% vs 4.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.3% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Arcosa's main strength lies in supplying aggregates and engineered structures for US infrastructure projects from roads to data centers, while its main weak point remains average or below average moat durability with low ROE.
Main risk: Fresh cyclical pressures from the larger scale after the CRH combination would hit margins and earnings conversion in the combined business.
Arcosa supplies aggregates and engineered structures that support US infrastructure projects from roads to power grids and data centers. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued with the CRH combination still pending regulatory clearance after shareholder approval. Will the targeted cost synergies strengthen the combined business more than any fresh cyclical pressures from the larger scale?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−53.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.80× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.51× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow41.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.90× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arcosa Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACA
Frequently asked questions
Is Arcosa Inc (ACA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $69.34 versus the last price from Oct 22, 2026 of $149.15, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACA?
Our model-based fair value for Arcosa Inc is $69.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 22, 2026): $149.15.
What is the quality score of ACA?
Arcosa Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $69.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.53, optimistic scenario $111.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arcosa Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $69.34, about 54% lower versus the last price from Oct 22, 2026 of $149.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.53, optimistic scenario $111.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Arcosa Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Arcosa Inc pay a dividend?
Arcosa Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arcosa Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACA use?
Our models discount Arcosa Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arcosa Inc that is +27.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arcosa Inc (ACA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arcosa Inc grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +27.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arcosa Inc (ACA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arcosa Inc (+27.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.39 %: that much free cash flow Arcosa Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arcosa Inc it is $69.34 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $149.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arcosa Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ACA trades above its calculated fair value: price $149.15, fair value $69.34, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($149.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($69.34). For Arcosa Inc the two are $79.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arcosa Inc worth?
The market values Arcosa Inc at about $7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $149.15; our models calculate a fair value of $69.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACA?
Our models span a range for Arcosa Inc: cautious scenario $34.53, base $69.34, optimistic $111.40 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $149.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACA?
Arcosa Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $69.34 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.4 (reported for FY2025: 35.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 25.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ACA?
The PEG ratio of Arcosa Inc is 1.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arcosa Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACA from its 52-week high?
Arcosa Inc trades at $149.15, at its 52-week high of $149.15 and 62% above the low of $92.14 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $69.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arcosa Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arcosa Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $149.15, calculated fair value $69.34 (−54%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACA calculated?
We run Arcosa Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $69.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Arcosa Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 22, 2026 and stands at $149.15. Our model-based fair value is $69.34, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arcosa Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($111.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($34.53 to $111.40). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Arcosa Inc (ACA) come from?
Earnings per share at Arcosa Inc grew +2.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arcosa Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The market capitalisation of Arcosa Inc is $7.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arcosa Inc is 2.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Earnings per share at Arcosa Inc are $4.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The dividend yield of Arcosa Inc is 0.1% (payout 4.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 4.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The net margin of Arcosa Inc is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arcosa Inc is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arcosa Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
The operating margin of Arcosa Inc is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Revenue at Arcosa Inc is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arcosa Inc (ACA)?
Earnings per share at Arcosa Inc are growing +449% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arcosa Inc (ACA) carry?
The net debt of Arcosa Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Arcosa Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Arcosa Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026