ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.5B
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc
ACAD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +12.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.43 to $35.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.01 – $33.47 · fair‑value band $16.43 – $35.97 · the $29.21 price screens above the $21.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) currently trades at $29.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.90, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 34.3%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 37.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $126M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.43 (bear case) to $35.97 (bull case); at $29.21, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -25%, ACAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($106.09) versus Asset-Based ($4.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for neurological and rare disease in North America.
Full company description
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for neurological and rare disease in North America. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), a selective serotonin inverse agonist/antagonist for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis; and DAYBUE, a novel synthetic analog of the amino-terminal tripeptide of insulin-like growth factor 1 to treat the symptoms of Rett syndrome by reducing neuroinflammation and supporting synaptic function. It also develops remlifanserin, which is in phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of alzheimer's disease psychosis and lewy body dementia psychosis; ACP-211, which is in phase 2 clinical trial to treat major depressive disorder; ACP-711, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of essential tremor; and ACP-271, a GPR88 agonist for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia and huntington's disease and is in phase I trial. In addition, the company develops ACP-2591, a cGP analogue which is in Phase 1 clinical trial to treat rett syndrome and fragile X syndrome; and STOKE Antisense Oligonucleotide Program, which is in discovery program for SYNGAP1 syndrome. It has a license agreement with Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited to trofinetide for Rett syndrome and other indications; and a license and collaboration agreement with Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. to discover, develop, and commercialize novel RNA-based medicines for the potential treatment of severe and rare genetic neurodevelopmental diseases of the CNS. The company was formerly known as Receptor Technologies, Inc. and changed its name ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 1997. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $484M in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $391M in FY2025.
ACAD screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- Acadia outlines $480M-$510M 2026 DAYBUE sales outlook as remlifanserin Phase II data nears Sep-Oct
- Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
- Acadia Pharmaceuticals Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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