ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc $20.43, price $25.43, upside -19.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc
ACAD · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.01 – $33.47 · fair‑value band $11.02 – $35.72 · the $25.43 price screens above the $20.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for neurological and rare disease in North America.
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for neurological and rare disease in North America. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), a selective serotonin inverse agonist/antagonist for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis; and DAYBUE, a novel synthetic analog of the amino-terminal tripeptide of insulin-like growth factor 1 to treat the symptoms of Rett syndrome by reducing neuroinflammation and supporting synaptic function. It also develops remlifanserin, which is in phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of alzheimer's disease psychosis and lewy body dementia psychosis; ACP-211, which is in phase 2 clinical trial to treat major depressive disorder; ACP-711, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of essential tremor; and ACP-271, a GPR88 agonist for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia and huntington's disease and is in phase I trial. In addition, the company develops ACP-2591, a cGP analogue which is in Phase 1 clinical trial to treat rett syndrome and fragile X syndrome; and STOKE Antisense Oligonucleotide Program, which is in discovery program for SYNGAP1 syndrome. It has a license agreement with Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited to trofinetide for Rett syndrome and other indications; and a license and collaboration agreement with Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. to discover, develop, and commercialize novel RNA-based medicines for the potential treatment of severe and rare genetic neurodevelopmental diseases of the CNS. The company was formerly known as Receptor Technologies, Inc. and changed its name ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 1997. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD) currently trades at $25.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.43, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $106.09 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $25.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.80, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.02 (bear) to $35.72 (bull), the price of $25.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $484M in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $391M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 4.20 · EPS (TTM) $2.21 · Net margin 36.5% · Return on equity 37.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.2% · Operating margin −1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −20%, ACAD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 24 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
ACAD screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Earlier news
- Why Is Acadia (ACAD) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
- AcadeMedia (OM:ACAD) Reports Stronger Results, Is The 19% Upside Still There?
- Acadia Gets European Commission Nod for Daybu in Rett Syndrome
- Biotech Stocks At 52-Week Highs - BIVI +22%, XNCR, ANRO, HAE, ACAD
Compare ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $514.99 | $566.49 | +10% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $803.90 | $1,252 | +56% |
| argenx SE ARGX | $963.79 | $918.60 | −5% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,366,000 KRW | 1,502,600 KRW | +10% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$179.24 | A$197.16 | +10% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $251.65 | $218.36 | −13% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $58.52 | $24.22 | −59% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 177,400 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −58% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $368.08 | $280.94 | −24% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $100.87 | $63.62 | −37% |
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Key figures of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc
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