ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CA · Market cap C$7.9B (≈ $5.7B) · ISIN CA0467894006
What is ATCO Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 51% above our fair value of C$48.13.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from C$26.74 to C$48.13 (+80.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$60.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.86 – C$81.41 · fair‑value band C$36.11 – C$60.17 · the C$72.78 price screens above the C$48.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) currently trades at C$72.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$48.13, implying the stock looks roughly 51.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$38.02 per share, and 1 of the 10 models we run sit above the C$72.78 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$4.99, and 9 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, ATCO Ltd generated revenue of C$5.2B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at C$12.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$36.11 (bear case) to C$60.17 (bull case); at C$72.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −34%, ACO-X screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$38.02) versus Earnings-Based (C$4.99). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ATCO Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, logistics and transportation, shelter, and real estate services in Canada, Australia, and internationally.
Full company description
ATCO Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, logistics and transportation, shelter, and real estate services in Canada, Australia, and internationally. The company engages in electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution, and international electricity operations; energy storage, electricity generation, storage and industrial water solutions, and clean fuels; and electricity and natural gas retail sales, and home maintenance solutions. It also offers residential and workforce housing, modular facilities, construction, site support, workforce lodging, facility operations and maintenance, defense operations, and disaster and emergency management services. In addition, the company provides commercial real estate business that holds investments for sale, lease, and development; recycling and marketing of ash; and generates electricity through hydro, solar, wind, and natural gas facilities; retail electricity and natural gas, home products, and home maintenance services; and retail food services under Blue Flame Kitchen brand name, as well as professional home advices. Further, the company provides ports and transportation logistics; natural gas liquids storage services; and integrated water services, including pipeline transportation, storage, water treatment, recycling, and disposal to various industrial customers. ATCO Ltd. was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. ATCO Ltd. is a subsidiary of Sentgraf Enterprises Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ATCO Ltd reported revenue of C$5.1B in FY2025 versus C$4.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$150M in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ACO-X screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ATCO Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- ATCO REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS
- ATCO to Begin Yellowhead Pipeline Construction: Delivering Alberta Infrastructure that Enables Growth
- ATCO LTD. ELIGIBLE DIVIDENDS
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €20.28 | €8.45 | −58% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €9.42 | €4.82 | −49% |
| Engie SA ENGI | €24.50 | €21.15 | −14% |
| Sempra SRE | $84.57 | $44.47 | −47% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €17.83 | €11.71 | −34% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and RWE | €59.10 | €55.77 | −6% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 184.00 SAR | 24.19 SAR | −87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$54.99 | C$34.34 | −38% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €68.60 | €21.11 | −69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.70 | €3.81 | −19% |
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