ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ATCO Ltd stock C$48.13, price C$78.85, upside -39.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.86 – C$81.91 · fair‑value band C$34.09 – C$51.08 · the C$78.85 price screens above the C$48.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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ATCO Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, logistics and transportation, shelter, and real estate services in Canada, Australia, and internationally.
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The company engages in electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution, and international electricity operations; energy storage, electricity generation, storage and industrial water solutions, and clean fuels; and electricity and natural gas retail sales, and home maintenance solutions.
It also offers residential and workforce housing, modular facilities, construction, site support, workforce lodging, facility operations and maintenance, defense operations, and disaster and emergency management services.
In addition, the company provides commercial real estate business that holds investments for sale, lease, and development; recycling and marketing of ash; and generates electricity through hydro, solar, wind, and natural gas facilities; retail electricity and natural gas, home products, and home maintenance services; and retail food services under Blue Flame Kitchen brand name, as well as professional home advices.
Further, the company provides ports and transportation logistics; natural gas liquids storage services; and integrated water services, including pipeline transportation, storage, water treatment, recycling, and disposal to various industrial customers.
ATCO Ltd. was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. ATCO Ltd. is a subsidiary of Sentgraf Enterprises Ltd.
Stock analysis
ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) currently trades at C$78.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$48.13, 39.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of C$33.07 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$78.85 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$4.99, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$34.09 (bear) to C$51.08 (bull), the price of C$78.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
ATCO Ltd reported revenue of C$5.1B in FY2025 versus C$4.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$150M in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$9.0B (≈ $6.4B) Mid · P/E ratio 45.6 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) C$1.60 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −39%, ACO-X screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$34.09Fair Value C$48.13BullC$51.08
Price C$78.85 · Upside -39.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.5% vs −7.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.3% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The regulated utility offers infrastructure scale as its main strength yet faces low returns, high leverage relative to equity and minimal differentiation as its core weakness.
Main risk: High leverage relative to equity risks limiting the scaled utility's ability to fund and realise its capital plans and rate-base growth after the merger and spin-off.
ATCO plans to merge its Canadian Utilities stake with Emera in a deal that creates a much larger regulated utility while spinning off its housing, defence and industrial services into a separate listed company. Shareholders would then hold positions in both the scaled utility with big capital plans and the focused non-utility business. Will the utility side realise the expected rate-base growth and synergies quicker than the industrial operations can grow independently?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)45.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.93× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow68.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.14× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)70· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)53· sector 83
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ATCO Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACO-X
Frequently asked questions
Is ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$48.13 versus a price of C$78.85, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACO-X?
Our model-based fair value for ATCO Ltd is C$48.13 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$78.85.
What is the quality score of ACO-X?
ATCO Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$48.13 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$34.09, optimistic scenario C$51.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ATCO Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$48.13, about −39% upside versus a price of C$78.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$34.09, optimistic scenario C$51.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
ATCO Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$5.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does ATCO Ltd pay a dividend?
ATCO Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ATCO Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACO-X use?
Our models discount ATCO Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ATCO Ltd that is +34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ATCO Ltd grew +5.5 % a year. The price currently implies +34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ATCO Ltd (+34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.54 %: that much free cash flow ATCO Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ATCO Ltd it is C$48.13 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of C$78.85. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ATCO Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, ACO-X trades above its calculated fair value: price C$78.85, fair value C$48.13, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACO-X?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$78.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$48.13). For ATCO Ltd the two are C$30.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ATCO Ltd worth?
The market values ATCO Ltd at about C$9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is C$78.85; our models calculate a fair value of C$48.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACO-X?
Our models span a range for ATCO Ltd: cautious scenario C$34.09, base C$48.13, optimistic C$51.08 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price C$78.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACO-X?
ATCO Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$48.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ACO-X?
The PEG ratio of ATCO Ltd is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Balance-sheet figures for ATCO Ltd (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 2.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACO-X from its 52-week high?
ATCO Ltd trades at C$78.85, about 4% below its 52-week high of C$81.91 and 54% above the low of C$51.15 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$48.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ATCO Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ATCO Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price C$78.85, calculated fair value C$48.13 (−39%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACO-X calculated?
We run ATCO Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$48.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. ATCO Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was C$78.85. Our model-based fair value is C$48.13, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ATCO Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$51.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) come from?
Earnings per share at ATCO Ltd grew +1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.9 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ATCO Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The market capitalisation of ATCO Ltd is C$9.0B (≈ $6.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ATCO Ltd is 1.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Earnings per share at ATCO Ltd are C$1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The dividend yield of ATCO Ltd is 2.6% (payout 130%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The net margin of ATCO Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ATCO Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ATCO Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
The operating margin of ATCO Ltd is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Revenue at ATCO Ltd is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ATCO Ltd (ACO-X)?
Earnings per share at ATCO Ltd are growing +37.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ATCO Ltd (ACO-X) carry?
The net debt of ATCO Ltd is C$12.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 54.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 14, 2026