EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. €3.81, price €4.76, upside -20.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.58 – €4.86 · fair‑value band €2.67 – €4.95 · the €4.76 price screens above the €3.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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EDP, S.A. engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity in Portugal, Spain, France, Poland, Romania, Italy, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Greece, Colombia, Brazil, North America, and internationally. It operates through Renewables, Networks, and Client Solutions & Energy Management segments.
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EDP, S.A. engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity in Portugal, Spain, France, Poland, Romania, Italy, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Greece, Colombia, Brazil, North America, and internationally. It operates through Renewables, Networks, and Client Solutions & Energy Management segments. The company generates and sells electricity through hydro, combined-cycle gas turbine, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, and cogeneration and waste sources. The company is also involved in the supply of natural gas. In addition, it offers engineering, laboratory tests, professional training, and energy services, as well as property management services. The company was formerly known as EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. and changed its name to EDP, S.A. in April 2024. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) currently trades at €4.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.81, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.73 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the €4.76 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €1.82, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.67 (bear) to €4.95 (bull), the price of €4.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. reported revenue of €15.6B in FY2025 versus €15.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €19.7B · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) €0.2700 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −20%, EDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.67Fair Value €3.81Bull €4.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0475 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (59 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−22% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.69× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EDP
Frequently asked questions
Is EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.81 versus a price of €4.76, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EDP?
Our model-based fair value for EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is €3.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.76.
What is the quality score of EDP?
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.67, optimistic scenario €4.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.81, about −20% upside versus a price of €4.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.67, optimistic scenario €4.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. pay a dividend?
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. it is €3.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €4.76. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EDP trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.76, fair value €3.81, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.81). For EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. the two are €0.9540 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. worth?
The market values EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. at about €19.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €4.76; our models calculate a fair value of €3.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EDP?
Our models span a range for EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A.: cautious scenario €2.67, base €3.81, optimistic €4.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €4.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EDP?
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EDP?
The PEG ratio of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 2.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 1.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EDP from its 52-week high?
EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. trades at €4.76, about 2% below its 52-week high of €4.86 and 35% above the low of €3.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €4.76, calculated fair value €3.81 (−20%), Quality Score 43/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EDP calculated?
We run EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €4.76. Our model-based fair value is €3.81, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. right now?
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€2.67 to €4.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) come from?
Earnings per share at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. grew −4.8 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.5 %, EBIT margin −6.4 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The market capitalisation of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is €19.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Earnings per share at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. are €0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The dividend yield of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 4.3% (payout 75.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The net margin of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
The operating margin of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Revenue at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is growing −0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP)?
Earnings per share at EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. are growing −10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) generate?
The free cash flow of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is −€1.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. (EDP) carry?
The net debt of EDP - Energias de Portugal S.A. is €18.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026