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Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Addiko Bank AG $38.45, price $28.15, upside +36.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Addiko Bank AG
ADBKF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $38.45 · Undervalued (+36.6%)
!Quality 45/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.46 – $32.25 · fair‑value band $28.84 – $48.06 · the $28.15 price screens below the $38.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Addiko Bank AG provides various banking products and services in Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Austria, Germany, and Serbia. It operates through Consumer, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME), Mortgage, Large Corporates, and Public Finance segments.
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Addiko Bank AG provides various banking products and services in Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Austria, Germany, and Serbia. It operates through Consumer, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME), Mortgage, Large Corporates, and Public Finance segments. The company offers online and direct deposits; consumer and public finance, mortgage loans relating to real estate purchase or leveraging private real estate as collateral, unsecured personal loan products and working capital loans, and trade finance products. It serves private individuals, SMEs, entrepreneurs, ministries of finance, state enterprises, local governments, and public institutions. Addiko Bank AG is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) currently trades at $28.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.45, implying the stock looks roughly 26.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $37.74 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $28.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.14, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.84 (bear) to $48.06 (bull), the price of $28.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Addiko Bank AG reported revenue of €378M in FY2025 versus €222M in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €44.0M in FY2025, compounding +34.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $638M · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) $2.65 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 37%, ADBKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.84
Fair Value $38.45
Bull $48.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.00 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$37.93
$37.74
$39.18
76
Gordon GGM
$11.02
$19.86
$27.34
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$11.02
$18.14
$21.21
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$11.02
$19.86
$27.34
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$11.02
$18.14
$21.21
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$25.03
$33.37
$41.72
63
P/B Multiple
$32.73
$43.64
$54.55
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$26.21
$35.12
$52.42
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$37.93
$37.74
$39.18
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
15
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 78.00 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −48% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥40.69 | ¥52.73 | +30% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €79.53 | €77.12 | −3% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $11.05 | $6.82 | −38% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.38 | €4.06 | −36% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €12.03 | €8.46 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.45 versus a price of $28.15, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADBKF?
Our model-based fair value for Addiko Bank AG is $38.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.15.
What is the quality score of ADBKF?
Addiko Bank AG has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.84, optimistic scenario $48.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Addiko Bank AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.45, about +37% upside versus a price of $28.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.84, optimistic scenario $48.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Addiko Bank AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €273M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Addiko Bank AG pay a dividend?
Addiko Bank AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Addiko Bank AG would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADBKF use?
Our models discount Addiko Bank AG at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Addiko Bank AG that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Addiko Bank AG grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Addiko Bank AG (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.71 %: that much free cash flow Addiko Bank AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Addiko Bank AG it is $38.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $28.15. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Addiko Bank AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADBKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.15, fair value $38.45, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADBKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.45). For Addiko Bank AG the two are $10.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Addiko Bank AG worth?
The market values Addiko Bank AG at about $638M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $28.15; our models calculate a fair value of $38.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADBKF?
Our models span a range for Addiko Bank AG: cautious scenario $28.84, base $38.45, optimistic $48.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $28.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADBKF?
Addiko Bank AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Addiko Bank AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADBKF from its 52-week high?
Addiko Bank AG trades at $28.15, about 13% below its 52-week high of $32.25 and 6% above the low of $26.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Addiko Bank AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Addiko Bank AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $28.15, calculated fair value $38.45 (+37%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADBKF calculated?
We run Addiko Bank AG through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Addiko Bank AG currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $28.15. Our model-based fair value is $38.45, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Addiko Bank AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($28.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Addiko Bank AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The market capitalisation of Addiko Bank AG is $638M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Addiko Bank AG is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Earnings per share at Addiko Bank AG are $2.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The dividend yield of Addiko Bank AG is 4.0% (payout 42.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The net margin of Addiko Bank AG is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Addiko Bank AG is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Addiko Bank AG is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
The operating margin of Addiko Bank AG is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Revenue at Addiko Bank AG is growing −5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF)?
Earnings per share at Addiko Bank AG are growing +12.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Addiko Bank AG (ADBKF) hold?
Addiko Bank AG holds more cash than debt, €914M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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