Adtran Networks SE (ADVOF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.3B
Adtran Networks SE
ADVOF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $19.15 to $14.89 (−22.2%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.65 – $24.61 · fair‑value band $11.16 – $18.62 · the $24.19 price screens above the $14.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Adtran Networks SE (ADVOF) currently trades at $24.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.89, implying the stock looks roughly 38.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Adtran Networks SE generated revenue of $482M at a net margin of -4.5%. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.6%. Net debt stands at $1.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.16 (bear case) to $18.62 (bull case); at $24.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -38%, ADVOF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($16.96) versus Asset-Based ($4.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Adtran Networks SE develops, manufactures, and sells optical and Ethernet-based networking solutions for telecommunications carriers and enterprises. It provides its solutions to deliver data, storage, voice, and video services.
Full company description
Adtran Networks SE develops, manufactures, and sells optical and Ethernet-based networking solutions for telecommunications carriers and enterprises. It provides its solutions to deliver data, storage, voice, and video services. The company offers open optical networking products, such as open line systems, optical terminals, pluggable optics, management and control, and ALM fiber monitoring; access and aggregation switches and routers, optical line terminals, network management and automation, cabinets and enclosures, and ALM PON monitoring; residential, business, and wholesale subscriber solutions; and automation and insight solutions comprising management and orchestration, and network and subscriber insights. It also provides network infrastructure assurance which includes ALM fiber and PON monitoring; timing and synchronization; and global, consulting and education, deployment, cloud and software, support, and training services. In addition, the company offers cloud interconnect solutions, including DWDM optics, secure data transport, thin transponders, and MicroMux Quattro; and optical networking solutions that include purpose-built plugs and intelligent control. It serves Altnets, Cable MSOs, municipal broadband solutions, telcos, and utilities industries. The company operates in Germany, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was formerly known as ADVA Optical Networking SE and changed its name to Adtran Networks SE in June 2023. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Adtran Networks SE operates as a subsidiary of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adtran Networks SE reported revenue of $482M in FY2025 versus $603M in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.9M in FY2025.
ADVOF screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 290 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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