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ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ADVA Optical Networking SE $22.26, price $24.19, upside -8.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US

AO ADVA Optical Networking SE logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

ADVA Optical Networking SE

ADVOF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $22.26 · Fairly valued (−8%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.61 $4.65 Fair Value $22.26 Jun 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.65 – $24.61 · fair‑value band $15.54 – $30.90 · the $24.19 price screens above the $22.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Adtran Networks SE develops, manufactures, and sells optical and Ethernet-based networking solutions for telecommunications carriers and enterprises. It provides its solutions to deliver data, storage, voice, and video services.

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Adtran Networks SE develops, manufactures, and sells optical and Ethernet-based networking solutions for telecommunications carriers and enterprises. It provides its solutions to deliver data, storage, voice, and video services. The company offers open optical networking products, such as open line systems, optical terminals, pluggable optics, management and control, and ALM fiber monitoring; access and aggregation switches and routers, optical line terminals, network management and automation, cabinets and enclosures, and ALM PON monitoring; residential, business, and wholesale subscriber solutions; and automation and insight solutions comprising management and orchestration, and network and subscriber insights. It also provides network infrastructure assurance which includes ALM fiber and PON monitoring; timing and synchronization; and global, consulting and education, deployment, cloud and software, support, and training services. In addition, the company offers cloud interconnect solutions, including DWDM optics, secure data transport, thin transponders, and MicroMux Quattro; and optical networking solutions that include purpose-built plugs and intelligent control. It serves Altnets, Cable MSOs, municipal broadband solutions, telcos, and utilities industries. The company operates in Germany, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was formerly known as ADVA Optical Networking SE and changed its name to Adtran Networks SE in June 2023. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Adtran Networks SE operates as a subsidiary of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

Stock analysis

ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) currently trades at $24.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.26, implying the stock looks roughly 8.7% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.05 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $24.19 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.99, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $15.54 (bear) to $30.90 (bull), the price of $24.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

ADVA Optical Networking SE reported revenue of €482M in FY2025 versus €603M in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€21.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $−1.98 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 2.6% · Revenue (TTM) €482M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −8%, ADVOF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.54 Fair Value $22.26 Bull $30.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $13.28 $18.20 $24.52 81
Growth DCF $13.43 $17.80 $23.11 80
Owner Earnings $8.38 $11.36 $15.19 77
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $13.28 $18.20 $24.52 81
Owner Earnings $8.38 $11.36 $15.19 77
5Y Revenue Exit $12.50 $18.41 $25.75 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $12.99 $19.30 $26.44 75
10Y Revenue Exit $12.40 $17.50 $23.94 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.98 $18.05 $24.40 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $14.44 $18.97 $23.51 67
EV/Revenue $12.66 $17.72 $22.78 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.73 $4.99 $7.45 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.43 $17.80 $23.11 80
Rev-Margin DCF $12.50 $18.54 $25.27 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 82
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.9% (2020) → −4.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 311 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.61× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 18.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 99.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.96× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)23 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)86 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO $106.44 $117.08 +10%
Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 ¥927.72 ¥349.40 −62%
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 ¥62.98 ¥14.18 −77%
Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 ¥455.00 ¥329.86 −28%
Nokia Oyj NOK $10.82 $3.74 −65%
Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI $456.70 $248.10 −46%
Ciena Corporation CIEN $368.56 $48.80 −87%
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 ¥275.84 ¥87.34 −68%
Accton Technology Corporation 2345 1,895 TWD 2,085 TWD +10%
Ubiquiti Inc UI $580.88 $542.64 −7%

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ADVA Optical Networking SE · Fair Value
$22.26 −9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ADVA Optical Networking SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADVOF

Frequently asked questions

Is ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.26 versus a price of $24.19, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ADVOF?
Our model-based fair value for ADVA Optical Networking SE is $22.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.19.
What is the quality score of ADVOF?
ADVA Optical Networking SE has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.54, optimistic scenario $30.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADVA Optical Networking SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.26, about −8% upside versus a price of $24.19 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.54, optimistic scenario $30.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
ADVA Optical Networking SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €482M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADVA Optical Networking SE would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADVOF use?
Our models discount ADVA Optical Networking SE at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADVA Optical Networking SE that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADVA Optical Networking SE grew -3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADVA Optical Networking SE (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.11 %: that much free cash flow ADVA Optical Networking SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADVA Optical Networking SE it is $22.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.19. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ADVA Optical Networking SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ADVOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.19, fair value $22.26, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADVOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.26). For ADVA Optical Networking SE the two are $1.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADVA Optical Networking SE worth?
The market values ADVA Optical Networking SE at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.19; our models calculate a fair value of $22.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADVOF?
Our models span a range for ADVA Optical Networking SE: cautious scenario $15.54, base $22.26, optimistic $30.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ADVOF?
The PEG ratio of ADVA Optical Networking SE is 1.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ADVA Optical Networking SE (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ADVA Optical Networking SE?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADVA Optical Networking SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.19, calculated fair value $22.26 (−8%), Quality Score 67/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADVOF calculated?
We run ADVA Optical Networking SE through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ADVA Optical Networking SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.19. Our model-based fair value is $22.26, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADVA Optical Networking SE right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($15.54 to $30.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of ADVA Optical Networking SE

How large is the market capitalisation of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The market capitalisation of ADVA Optical Networking SE is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADVA Optical Networking SE is 2.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Earnings per share at ADVA Optical Networking SE are $−1.98. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The net margin of ADVA Optical Networking SE is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADVA Optical Networking SE is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADVA Optical Networking SE is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
The operating margin of ADVA Optical Networking SE is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Revenue at ADVA Optical Networking SE is growing +17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF)?
Earnings per share at ADVA Optical Networking SE are growing −57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ADVA Optical Networking SE (ADVOF) carry?
The net debt of ADVA Optical Networking SE is €1.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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