Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $478B

A strong business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($71.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $35.46 – $129.52 · fair‑value band $40.50 – $71.87 · the $120.88 price screens above the $56.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) currently trades at $120.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.19, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cisco Systems, Inc generated revenue of $60.7B at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.2%. Net debt stands at $19.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $40.50 (bear case) to $71.87 (bull case); at $120.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -54%, CSCO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($55.57) versus Asset-Based ($7.96). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.

Full company description

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company offers data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; threat intelligence, detection, and response solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite; issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable. It also delivers connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; wireless products, including indoor and outdoor wireless coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications; end-to-end collaboration solutions through cloud, on-premise, or within hybrid cloud environments, transition collaboration solutions from on-premise to the cloud; and network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite. In addition, it offers technical support and advisory services. The company serves businesses, public institutions, governments, and service providers. It sells its products and services directly, through systems integrators, service providers, resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cisco Systems, Inc reported revenue of $56.7B in FY2025 versus $49.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.2B in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.

CSCO screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Zhongji Innolight Co →

Peer Group

Communication Equipment · 284 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.