Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Motorola Solutions Inc stock $250, price $497, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $187.71 – $496.99 · fair‑value band $157.09 – $348.89 · the $496.99 price screens above the $249.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Motorola Solutions, Inc. provides public safety, government, defense, and enterprise security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services.
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The Products and Systems Integration segment offers a portfolio of infrastructure, devices, accessories, and the implementation and integration of systems, devices, software, and applications for government, including defense, public safety, and enterprise customers who operate private communications systems and video security solutions, as well as manage a mobile workforce.
This segment also provides mission critical networks, and video security and access control technologies, including two-way portable and vehicle-mounted radios, video cameras, and accessories; communications network core and central processing software, base stations, consoles, and repeaters; and video analytics, network video management hardware and software, and access control solutions.
The Software and Services segment offers public safety and enterprise command center, unified communications applications, mobile video equipment, and video software solutions; repair, technical support, and maintenance services; and monitoring, software updates, and cybersecurity services to government, public safety, and commercial communications networks.
It serves hospitality; manufacturing; military and defence; police; air transportation; fire and rescue; stadium; emergency medical services; mining; oil and gas; transportation and logistics; utilities; education; retail; and healthcare industries.
The company was formerly known as Motorola, Inc. and changed its name to Motorola Solutions, Inc. in January 2011. Motorola Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) currently trades at $496.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $249.63, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $313.48 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $496.99 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $51.41, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $157.09 (bear) to $348.89 (bull), the price of $496.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Motorola Solutions Inc reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $8.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $83.1B Large · P/E ratio 39.1 · P/S ratio 6.79 · EPS (TTM) $12.70 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 17.4% · Return on equity 91.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −50%, MSI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$157.09Fair Value $249.63Bull$348.89
Price $496.99 · Downside -49.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $8.5M and none bought.
SaleGregory Q BrownChairman and CEO, Director5× since Feb 23, 2026: 185,855 shares, avg. $470.42$87.4MSep 2, 2026
SaleKathryn A MooreSVP, HUMAN RESOURCES2× since Feb 27, 2026: 1,409 shares, avg. $477.51$673,012Aug 21, 2026
SaleAyanna HowardDirector685 shares at $469.52$321,621Aug 12, 2026
SaleKatherine A MaherCVP and CAO1,754 shares at $469.77$823,983Aug 7, 2026
SaleCynthia YazdiSVP, COS to the Chairman & CEO2× since Feb 26, 2026: 14,260 shares, avg. $475.23$6.8MFeb 27, 2026
SaleJason J WinklerEVP and CFO8,819 shares at $478.23$4.2MFeb 27, 2026
SaleKenneth D DenmanDirector434 shares at $470.12$204,032Feb 26, 2026
SaleMahesh SaptharishiEVP and CTO2,200 shares at $471.54$1.0MFeb 25, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Per share before 2004divided by the spin-off factor 1.1173
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.6% vs 14.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.2% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Predictable revenues from long-term public safety contracts and backlog provide stability, while acquisitions introduce integration and margin pressures as the main weakness.
Main risk: Axon could intensify competition in command center software and take customers or force lower prices and margins in that segment of Motorola Solutions' portfolio.
Bull case: By deepening integration of its mission-critical platforms with AI features and expanding through acquisitions like D-Fend, Motorola Solutions could increase customer stickiness and defend against software rivals such as Axon.
Bear case: If Axon gains ground in command center software while ALPR faces tighter rules and government contracts face cuts, Motorola Solutions could see squeezed margins in key segments and slower growth in its ecosystem.
Motorola Solutions draws predictable revenues from long-term public safety contracts and a sizable backlog that limits exposure to volatile tech spending cycles. Acquisitions such as Silvus open defense opportunities, including the recent Rheinmetall partnership for passive airspace sensors, yet add integration and margin pressures. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the stability of the core mission-critical business outweigh execution risks in these newer segments?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 301 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)91.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)27.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.1× · Pricier than median
P/B34.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.79× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow32.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA24.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.16× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)67· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $249.63 versus a price of $496.99, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSI?
Our model-based fair value for Motorola Solutions Inc is $249.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $496.99.
What is the quality score of MSI?
Motorola Solutions Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $249.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $157.09, optimistic scenario $348.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Motorola Solutions Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $249.63, about 50% lower versus a price of $496.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $157.09, optimistic scenario $348.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Motorola Solutions Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Motorola Solutions Inc pay a dividend?
Motorola Solutions Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Motorola Solutions Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSI use?
Our models discount Motorola Solutions Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Motorola Solutions Inc that is +17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Motorola Solutions Inc grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies +17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Motorola Solutions Inc (+17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.10 %: that much free cash flow Motorola Solutions Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Motorola Solutions Inc it is $249.63 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $496.99. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Motorola Solutions Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MSI trades above its calculated fair value: price $496.99, fair value $249.63, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($496.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($249.63). For Motorola Solutions Inc the two are $247.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Motorola Solutions Inc worth?
The market values Motorola Solutions Inc at about $83.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $496.99; our models calculate a fair value of $249.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSI?
Our models span a range for Motorola Solutions Inc: cautious scenario $157.09, base $249.63, optimistic $348.89 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $496.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSI?
Motorola Solutions Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $249.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 31.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 34.5, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 24.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MSI?
The PEG ratio of Motorola Solutions Inc is 2.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Motorola Solutions Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 91.6%, debt of 3.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSI from its 52-week high?
Motorola Solutions Inc trades at $496.99, at its 52-week high of $496.99 and 38% above the low of $360.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $249.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Motorola Solutions Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Lumentum Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Motorola Solutions Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $496.99, calculated fair value $249.63 (−50%), Quality Score 65/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSI calculated?
We run Motorola Solutions Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $249.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Motorola Solutions Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $496.99. Our model-based fair value is $249.63, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Motorola Solutions Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($348.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($157.09 to $348.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) come from?
Earnings per share at Motorola Solutions Inc grew +15.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Motorola Solutions Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The market capitalisation of Motorola Solutions Inc is $83.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Motorola Solutions Inc is 6.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Earnings per share at Motorola Solutions Inc are $12.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The dividend yield of Motorola Solutions Inc is 0.9% (payout 37.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The net margin of Motorola Solutions Inc is 17.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Motorola Solutions Inc is 91.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Motorola Solutions Inc is 15.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
The operating margin of Motorola Solutions Inc is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Revenue at Motorola Solutions Inc is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI)?
Earnings per share at Motorola Solutions Inc are growing +9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) carry?
The net debt of Motorola Solutions Inc is $8.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026