Motorola Solutions, Inc (MSI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $68.6B
Motorola Solutions, Inc
MSI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from $190.24 to $190.43 (+0.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +11.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($274.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($121.30 to $274.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $174.51 – $495.19 · fair‑value band $121.30 – $274.30 · the $474.07 price screens above the $190.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Motorola Solutions, Inc (MSI) currently trades at $474.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $190.43, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Motorola Solutions, Inc generated revenue of $11.9B at a net margin of 17.6%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 99.3%. Net debt stands at $8.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $121.30 (bear case) to $274.30 (bull case); at $474.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -64% fair-value upside, at -60%, MSI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($201.69) versus Asset-Based ($9.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Motorola Solutions, Inc. provides public safety, government, defense, and enterprise security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services.
Full company description
Motorola Solutions, Inc. provides public safety, government, defense, and enterprise security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services. The Products and Systems Integration segment offers a portfolio of infrastructure, devices, accessories, and the implementation and integration of systems, devices, software, and applications for government, including defense, public safety, and enterprise customers who operate private communications systems and video security solutions, as well as manage a mobile workforce. This segment also provides mission critical networks, and video security and access control technologies, including two-way portable and vehicle-mounted radios, video cameras, and accessories; communications network core and central processing software, base stations, consoles, and repeaters; and video analytics, network video management hardware and software, and access control solutions. The Software and Services segment offers public safety and enterprise command center, unified communications applications, mobile video equipment, and video software solutions; repair, technical support, and maintenance services; and monitoring, software updates, and cybersecurity services to government, public safety, and commercial communications networks. It serves hospitality; manufacturing; military and defence; police; air transportation; fire and rescue; stadium; emergency medical services; mining; oil and gas; transportation and logistics; utilities; education; retail; and healthcare industries. The company was formerly known as Motorola, Inc. and changed its name to Motorola Solutions, Inc. in January 2011. Motorola Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Motorola Solutions, Inc reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $8.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
MSI screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Motorola Solutions forecasts $12.975B revenue and $17.62-$17.72 EPS in 2026 while targeting ~170 bps margin expansion
- Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Raised ...
- Compared to Estimates, Motorola (MSI) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
- Motorola Solutions surges on earnings beat and raised outlook
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 284 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
| Accelink Technologies Co 002281 | ¥189.45 | ¥22.87 | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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