Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co (300394) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 271B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ¥44.86 to ¥32.04 (−28.6%) since Jul 9, 2026. Share price −7.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥90.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥24.48 to ¥90.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.48 – ¥354.43 · fair‑value band ¥24.48 – ¥90.77 · the ¥225.28 price screens above the ¥32.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co (300394) currently trades at ¥225.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥32.04, implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co generated revenue of 5.5B CNY at a net margin of 39.1%. Revenue grew 40.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥24.48 (bear case) to ¥90.77 (bull case); at ¥225.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 241% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -86%, 300394 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥83.40) versus Asset-Based (¥3.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides optical sub-assembly integrated solutions and optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Optical Device Overall Solutions and Optoelectronic Advanced Packaging Business segments.
Full company description
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides optical sub-assembly integrated solutions and optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Optical Device Overall Solutions and Optoelectronic Advanced Packaging Business segments. The company offers BOX packaging technology platform/high-speed optical engine solutions; coherent optics technology platform/FAU passive sub-assembly solutions; micro-optics technology platform and product solutions; parallel optics technology platform/AOC series passive optical components solutions; passive optical components solutions for PSM/DR applications; TO packaging technology platform/high speed coaxial sub-assembly solutions; and plastic lens and fiber array solutions for SR and OBO applications. It also provides wavelength division multiplexing devices and passive module solutions; fiber optic connection solutions; WDM (AWG) alignment technology platform/MUX/De-MUX solutions; and solutions for LiDAR applications, as well as optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services for OEMs. The company's products are used in AI computing centers, data centers, optical fiber communication, and optical sensing applications. In addition, it engages in the manufacture and sale of optoelectronic devices, electric subcomponents, high-precision molds and parts, optical lenses and filters, optical wavelength division devices, and electronic components; provision of information technology consulting, software development, Internet of Things technical, trading, investment, and technology services; design, production, import, and export of automotive parts, sensor equipment, and electronic equipment; and research, development, and technical consulting for biomedical equipment. Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co reported revenue of ¥5.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.0B in FY2021, a compound +49.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.0B in FY2025, compounding +60.2%/yr from FY2021.
300394 screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 284 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
| Accelink Technologies Co 002281 | ¥189.45 | ¥22.87 | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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