Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arendals Fossekompani ASA NOK 74.72, price NOK 185, upside -59.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value kr 74.72 · Strongly overvalued (−60%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +0.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.62% dividend yield
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Narrow moat28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 116.21 – kr 451.46 · fair‑value band kr 42.02 – kr 101.67 · the kr 185.00 price screens above the kr 74.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arendals Fossekompani ASA, an industrial investment company, provides cyber secure satellite and mobile communications in Norway, Europe, Asia, and North America. It operates through AFK Vannkraft, Group Management, NSSL Global, ENRX, Tekna, AFK Eiendom, and Alytic segments.
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Arendals Fossekompani ASA, an industrial investment company, provides cyber secure satellite and mobile communications in Norway, Europe, Asia, and North America. It operates through AFK Vannkraft, Group Management, NSSL Global, ENRX, Tekna, AFK Eiendom, and Alytic segments. It offers voice and data services, and IT support services; and airtime, projects, hardware, and service to the maritime sector, the military and government sector, large international corporations, and the energy sector. The company also generates power through hydropower plants; and owns a portfolio of companies. In addition, it offers wireless induction charging solutions to the automotive, renewable energy/wind energy, pipe fabrication, electronics, and cable and mechanical engineering; materials and plasma systems; and high-purity metal powders for applications, such as 3D printing in the aerospace, medical and consumer electronics sectors, as well as optimized induction plasma systems for industrial research and production. Further, the company is involved in property investments. Additionally, it owns and develops various residential and commercial properties. Arendals Fossekompani ASA was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Arendal, Norway.
Stock analysis
Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK) currently trades at kr 185.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 74.72, implying the stock looks roughly 147.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of kr 59.54 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the kr 185.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 31.40, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 42.02 (bear) to kr 101.67 (bull), the price of kr 185.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Arendals Fossekompani ASA reported revenue of 3.7B NOK in FY2025 versus 4.2B NOK in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −56.0M NOK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 10.2B NOK (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 2.63 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.68 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 17.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −60%, AFK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 42.02Fair Value kr 74.72Bull kr 101.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 0.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Arendals Fossekompani ASA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.22× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.29× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA1.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.09× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)32· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 74.72 versus a price of kr 185.00, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFK?
Our model-based fair value for Arendals Fossekompani ASA is kr 74.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 185.00.
What is the quality score of AFK?
Arendals Fossekompani ASA has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 74.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 42.02, optimistic scenario kr 101.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arendals Fossekompani ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 74.72, about −60% upside versus a price of kr 185.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 42.02, optimistic scenario kr 101.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Arendals Fossekompani ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.7B NOK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arendals Fossekompani ASA pay a dividend?
Arendals Fossekompani ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arendals Fossekompani ASA it is kr 74.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 185.00. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arendals Fossekompani ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFK trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 185.00, fair value kr 74.72, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 185.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 74.72). For Arendals Fossekompani ASA the two are kr 110.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arendals Fossekompani ASA worth?
The market values Arendals Fossekompani ASA at about 10.2B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 185.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 74.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFK?
Our models span a range for Arendals Fossekompani ASA: cautious scenario kr 42.02, base kr 74.72, optimistic kr 101.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 185.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AFK?
The PEG ratio of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arendals Fossekompani ASA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.2%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFK from its 52-week high?
Arendals Fossekompani ASA trades at kr 185.00, about 6% below its 52-week high of kr 197.83 and 50% above the low of kr 123.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 74.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arendals Fossekompani ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arendals Fossekompani ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 185.00, calculated fair value kr 74.72 (−60%), Quality Score 46/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFK calculated?
We run Arendals Fossekompani ASA through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 74.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arendals Fossekompani ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 185.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 74.72, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arendals Fossekompani ASA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 101.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 42.02 to kr 101.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arendals Fossekompani ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The market capitalisation of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 10.2B NOK (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 2.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Earnings per share at Arendals Fossekompani ASA are kr −1.68. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The dividend yield of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The net margin of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is −1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
The operating margin of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Revenue at Arendals Fossekompani ASA is growing −4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK)?
Earnings per share at Arendals Fossekompani ASA are growing +315% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK) generate?
The free cash flow of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is −56.0M NOK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK) carry?
The net debt of Arendals Fossekompani ASA is 4.0M NOK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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