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Align Technology, Inc (AFW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Align Technology, Inc €86.53, price €130, upside -33.6%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · DE · ISIN US0162551016

AT Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Align Technology, Inc

AFW · XETRA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €86.53 · Overvalued (−33.6%)
✓Quality 73/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 54/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€165.65 €105.50 Fair Value €86.53 Sep 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

13‑month range €105.50 – €165.65 · fair‑value band €64.90 – €108.17 · the €130.40 price screens above the €86.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally.

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Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Stock analysis

Align Technology, Inc (AFW) currently trades at €130.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €86.53, 33.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €107.30 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €130.40 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €26.92, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €64.90 (bear) to €108.17 (bull), the price of €130.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Align Technology, Inc reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $410M in FY2025, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €11.7B · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) €5.22 · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% · Operating margin 15.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −34%, AFW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €64.90 Fair Value €86.53 Bull €108.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.95 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €80.62 €114.24 €163.91 79
Growth DCF €82.16 €112.61 €155.24 76
Owner Earnings €88.07 €125.43 €180.62 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €80.62 €114.24 €163.91 79
Owner Earnings €88.07 €125.43 €180.62 74
5Y Revenue Exit €69.44 €98.38 €134.36 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €80.96 €119.40 €163.13 73
5Y P/E Exit €74.33 €107.30 €140.86 69
10Y Revenue Exit €71.37 €98.39 €132.81 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €80.20 €112.81 €154.29 66
10Y P/E Exit €76.02 €104.51 €137.66 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €34.61 €94.95 €124.59 65
Lynch FV €18.85 €26.92 €35.00 61
PEG = 1.0 €18.85 €26.92 €35.00 57
EPV €68.20 €77.31 €85.27 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple €64.89 €86.52 €108.16 63
P/S Multiple €56.30 €75.07 €93.84 58
P/B Multiple €64.89 €86.52 €108.16 55
EV/EBIT €89.81 €115.22 €140.63 63
EV/EBITDA €90.12 €115.63 €141.14 64
EV/Revenue €66.13 €88.65 €111.17 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €25.11 €33.65 €50.22 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €82.16 €112.61 €155.24 76
Rev-Margin DCF €69.44 €98.95 €131.91 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €44.59 €49.45 €62.74 71
ROIC Compounder €70.99 €85.54 €102.50 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €52.54 €75.05 €97.57 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.5%

AFW screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Medline Inc MDLN $34.70 $29.06 −16%
Alcon Inc ALC $63.94 $40.13 −37%
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST $375.65 $137.81 −63%
Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM €208.20 €54.82 −74%
Straumann Holding STMN CHF 89.80 CHF 45.50 −49%
Sartorius Aktiengesellschaft SRT €206.50 €42.05 −80%
Solventum Corporation SOLV $89.50 $134.36 +50%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Align Technology, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFW

Frequently asked questions

Is Align Technology, Inc (AFW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €86.53 versus a price of €130.40, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFW?
Our model-based fair value for Align Technology, Inc is €86.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €130.40.
What is the quality score of AFW?
Align Technology, Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €86.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €64.90, optimistic scenario €108.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Align Technology, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €86.53, about −34% upside versus a price of €130.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €64.90, optimistic scenario €108.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Align Technology, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Align Technology, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFW use?
Our models discount Align Technology, Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.67, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Align Technology, Inc that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Align Technology, Inc (AFW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Align Technology, Inc grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Align Technology, Inc (AFW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Align Technology, Inc (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.68 %: that much free cash flow Align Technology, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Align Technology, Inc it is €86.53 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €130.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Align Technology, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AFW trades above its calculated fair value: price €130.40, fair value €86.53, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€130.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€86.53). For Align Technology, Inc the two are €43.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Align Technology, Inc worth?
The market values Align Technology, Inc at about €11.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €130.40; our models calculate a fair value of €86.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFW?
Our models span a range for Align Technology, Inc: cautious scenario €64.90, base €86.53, optimistic €108.17 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €130.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AFW from its 52-week high?
Align Technology, Inc trades at €130.40, about 21% below its 52-week high of €165.65 and 20% above the low of €108.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €86.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Align Technology, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Becton, Dickinson and Company, Medline Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Align Technology, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €130.40, calculated fair value €86.53 (−34%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFW calculated?
We run Align Technology, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €86.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Align Technology, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €130.40. Our model-based fair value is €86.53, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Align Technology, Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€108.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Key figures of Align Technology, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The market capitalisation of Align Technology, Inc is €11.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Align Technology, Inc is 25.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Align Technology, Inc is 2.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Earnings per share at Align Technology, Inc are €5.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The net margin of Align Technology, Inc is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Align Technology, Inc is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Align Technology, Inc is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
The operating margin of Align Technology, Inc is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Revenue at Align Technology, Inc is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Align Technology, Inc (AFW)?
Earnings per share at Align Technology, Inc are growing +23.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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