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Anglo American PLC (AGL) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 845B ZAC

AA Anglo American PLC AGL · JSE
PriceR867.70
Fair ValueR256.46
Upside-70.4%
Quality51/100
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Strengths

Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trades 70% ABOVE our fair value of R256.46
!Weak Growth
!Loss-making · -20.2% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Weak Growth
Loss-making · -20.2% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Medium Range R144.61 – R418.89 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from R15.79 to R256.46 (+1,524.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +13.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R418.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (R144.61 to R418.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R920.95 R371.34 Fair Value R256.46 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R371.34 – R920.95 · fair‑value band R144.61 – R418.89 · the R867.70 price screens above the R256.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Anglo American PLC (AGL) currently trades at R867.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R256.46, implying the stock looks roughly 70.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Anglo American PLC generated revenue of 18.5B ZAR at a net margin of -20.2%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 8.1B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R144.61 (bear case) to R418.89 (bull case); at R867.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -70%, AGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R168.81 R266.53 R440.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF R130.02 R230.18 R353.14 74
ROIC Compounder R136.97 R174.95 R214.31 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R156.77 R256.46 R448.43 38
5Y Revenue Exit R130.02 R224.85 R362.63 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R282.97 R489.88 R763.82 41
10Y Revenue Exit R132.34 R205.40 R283.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R233.19 R373.05 R524.73 37
Earnings-Based
EPV R136.97 R174.95 R208.76 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R35.78 R39.37 R44.81 70
DDM Multi-Stage R35.78 R45.62 R59.98 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT R374.10 R524.96 R675.83 53
EV/EBITDA R431.18 R601.15 R771.12 54
EV/Revenue R131.76 R221.96 R312.15 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R97.14 R130.14 R194.28 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R168.81 R266.53 R440.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF R130.02 R230.18 R353.14 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder R136.97 R174.95 R214.31 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (R524.96) versus Dividend Discount (R39.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 18.5B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.5%
Net margin -20.2%
Return on equity -2.7%
Free cash flow 2.1B ZAC FY2025
Operating margin 22.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) R-17.27
EPS growth (YoY) -65.7%
Net debt 8.1B ZAC FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Anglo American plc, a mining company, produces copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through the Premium Iron Ore and the Copper segments. It also explores for nickel, diamonds, steelmaking coal, and manganese ore.

Full company description

Anglo American plc, a mining company, produces copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through the Premium Iron Ore and the Copper segments. It also explores for nickel, diamonds, steelmaking coal, and manganese ore. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Anglo American PLC reported revenue of R18.5B in FY2025 versus R41.6B in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −R3.7B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
18.5B ZAR
Latest YoY
+4.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−19.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.8%
Revenue −18.3%/yr
FY21 R41.6B
FY22 R35.1B
FY23 R30.7B
FY24 R17.7B
FY25 R18.5B
Net income
FY21 R8.6B
FY22 R4.5B
FY23 R283M
FY24 −R3.1B
FY25 −R3.7B

AGL screens 70% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anglo American PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGL.JSE

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 482 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +37% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) -20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.75× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.83× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 24.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.91× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE83 · sector 0
FUTURE88 · sector 25
PAST0 · sector 0
HEALTH63 · sector 96
DIVIDEND1 · sector 34

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 745.46 MXN -48%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$179.43 A$81.76 -54%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 216.56 MXN 173.04 MXN -20%
Vale S.A VALEN 233.40 MXN 139.49 MXN -40%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR -48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥19.00 ¥19.80 +4%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥70.43 ¥9.55 -86%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 -11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 -74%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 -13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Anglo American PLC (AGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R256.46 versus a price of R867.70, about −70% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGL?
Our model-based fair value for Anglo American PLC is R256.46 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R867.70.
What is the quality score of AGL?
Anglo American PLC has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Anglo American PLC (AGL)?
Anglo American PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 18.5B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AGL?
The net profit margin of Anglo American PLC is about -20.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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