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Data-driven stock valuation

Rio Tinto ADR (RIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Rio Tinto ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $147B · ISIN US7672041008

At a glance

RT Rio Tinto ADR logo Rio Tinto ADR RIO · US
Price$103.27
Fair Value$104.78
Upside+1.5%
Quality54/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $104.78.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Rio Tinto ADR is $104.78 per share against a price of $103.27, so the fair value sits 1% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.89% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
✓Wide moat 66/100
Evidence: High Range $54.31 to $163.22

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +1.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($54.31 to $163.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$112.04 $41.24 Fair Value $104.78 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $41.24 – $112.04 · fair‑value band $54.31 – $163.22 · the $103.27 price screens below the $104.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Rio Tinto ADR (RIO) currently trades at $103.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $104.78, implying the stock looks roughly 1.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $135.37 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $103.27 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.22, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Rio Tinto ADR generated revenue of $57.6B at a net margin of 17.3%. Revenue grew 14.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at $15.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $54.31 (bear) to $163.22 (bull), the price of $103.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 1%, RIO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.41 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $32.37 $53.27 $84.06 79
Growth DCF $33.36 $52.35 $78.86 78
Owner Earnings $27.08 $45.37 $72.29 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $32.37 $53.27 $84.06 79
Owner Earnings $27.08 $45.37 $72.29 75
5Y Revenue Exit $34.62 $60.32 $92.53 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $79.58 $142.19 $214.15 74
5Y P/E Exit $62.86 $111.74 $161.88 70
10Y Revenue Exit $31.97 $54.99 $84.67 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $61.75 $111.03 $175.23 67
10Y P/E Exit $51.21 $90.19 $136.31 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $54.15 $146.37 $191.74 65
Lynch FV $28.71 $41.01 $53.31 61
PEG = 1.0 $28.71 $41.01 $53.31 57
EPV $73.56 $87.46 $99.62 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $45.08 $93.73 $148.70 66
DDM Multi-Stage $45.08 $70.29 $97.11 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $101.53 $135.37 $169.21 63
P/S Multiple $51.81 $69.08 $86.35 58
P/B Multiple $101.53 $135.37 $169.21 55
EV/EBIT $118.34 $161.06 $203.78 66
EV/EBITDA $121.13 $164.79 $208.44 67
EV/Revenue $38.53 $59.25 $79.98 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.79 $33.22 $49.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $33.36 $52.35 $78.86 78
Rev-Margin DCF $34.62 $60.48 $89.10 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $52.25 $65.35 $147.15 70
ROIC Compounder $77.41 $99.37 $125.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $81.77 $116.82 $151.86 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($135.37) versus Asset-Based ($33.22). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.9 as of Jul 13, 2026
P/S ratio 2.57 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $6.08 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9
Dividend yield 3.9% payout 66.1%
Net margin 17.3% FY2025
Return on equity 16.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 25.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $57.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.6% 3y avg +1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −5.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $4.8B FY2025
Net debt $15.7B FY2025 · ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.

Full company description

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Rio Tinto ADR reported revenue of $57.8B in FY2025 versus $63.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.0B in FY2025, compounding −17.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$57.8B
Latest YoY
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−0.4%
Dividend yield3.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 0.3% vs 10Y 7.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37.7% (2020) → 26.5% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop122% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue −2.3%/yr
FY21 $63.5B
FY22 $55.6B
FY23 $54.0B
FY24 $53.7B
FY25 $57.8B
Net income −17.1%/yr
FY21 $21.1B
FY22 $12.4B
FY23 $10.1B
FY24 $11.6B
FY25 $10.0B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.8 %

of which total revenue +3.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %

EBIT margin +2.4 %
Tax rate +0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Rio Tinto ADR · Fair Value
$104.78 +1%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rio Tinto ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIO

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.34× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 30.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 5.69× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Rio Tinto ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+13.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+5.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price2.85 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.4 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE35 · sector 0
FUTURE73 · sector 38
PAST66 · sector 0
HEALTH83 · sector 96
DIVIDEND78 · sector 37

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.27 $8.95 −41%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Rio Tinto ADR (RIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $104.78 versus a price of $103.27, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RIO?
Our model-based fair value for Rio Tinto ADR is $104.78 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $103.27.
What is the quality score of RIO?
Rio Tinto ADR has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rio Tinto ADR (RIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $104.78 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.31, optimistic scenario $163.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rio Tinto ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $104.78, about +1% upside versus a price of $103.27 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $54.31, optimistic scenario $163.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rio Tinto ADR (RIO)?
Rio Tinto ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $57.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of RIO?
The net profit margin of Rio Tinto ADR is about 17.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Rio Tinto ADR pay a dividend?
Rio Tinto ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rio Tinto ADR (RIO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rio Tinto ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +13.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.4 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIO use?
Our models discount Rio Tinto ADR at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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