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BHP Group (BHPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 10, 2026: fair value of BHP Group MXN 829, price MXN 1,500, upside -44.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
BHP Group
BHPN · MXStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 829.08 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−44.7%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.1% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 77/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 740.82 MXN – 1,590 MXN · fair‑value band 595.54 MXN – 1,078 MXN · the 1,500 MXN price screens above the 829.08 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
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BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
BHP Group (BHPN) currently trades at 1,500 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 829.08 MXN, 44.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 990.58 MXN per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1,500 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 221.23 MXN, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 595.54 MXN (bear) to 1,078 MXN (bull), the price of 1,500 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BHP Group reported revenue of $51.3B in FY2025 versus $60.8B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $9.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6T MXN (≈ $200B) · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 3.74 · EPS (TTM) 70.54 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 24.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, BHPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 595.54 MXN
Fair Value 829.08 MXN
Bull 1,078 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (69.21 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
680.04 MXN
945.55 MXN
1,445 MXN
77
Growth DCF
708.81 MXN
967.40 MXN
1,417 MXN
76
EPV
588.92 MXN
697.07 MXN
791.70 MXN
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
680.04 MXN
945.55 MXN
1,445 MXN
77
Owner Earnings
381.10 MXN
539.35 MXN
837.28 MXN
73
5Y Revenue Exit
440.03 MXN
613.63 MXN
864.35 MXN
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
929.77 MXN
1,449 MXN
2,131 MXN
72
5Y P/E Exit
661.14 MXN
990.72 MXN
1,381 MXN
69
10Y Revenue Exit
515.56 MXN
681.30 MXN
865.23 MXN
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
827.27 MXN
1,234 MXN
1,701 MXN
66
10Y P/E Exit
662.06 MXN
930.71 MXN
1,206 MXN
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
438.06 MXN
755.86 MXN
924.75 MXN
64
EPV
588.92 MXN
697.07 MXN
791.70 MXN
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
419.93 MXN
531.83 MXN
647.41 MXN
67
DDM Multi-Stage
419.93 MXN
567.68 MXN
748.01 MXN
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
821.36 MXN
1,095 MXN
1,369 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
411.92 MXN
549.23 MXN
686.53 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
742.94 MXN
990.58 MXN
1,238 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
1,371 MXN
1,848 MXN
2,325 MXN
66
EV/EBITDA
1,259 MXN
1,698 MXN
2,138 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
324.48 MXN
489.25 MXN
654.02 MXN
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
165.10 MXN
221.23 MXN
330.19 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
708.81 MXN
967.40 MXN
1,417 MXN
76
Rev-Margin DCF
440.03 MXN
628.01 MXN
867.16 MXN
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
396.61 MXN
475.48 MXN
662.65 MXN
73
ROIC Compounder
600.83 MXN
730.16 MXN
868.59 MXN
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
585.14 MXN
835.92 MXN
1,087 MXN
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
64/100
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 37%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%
BHPN screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
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| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BHP Group (BHPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 829.08 MXN versus the last price from Sep 10, 2026 of 1,500 MXN, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHPN?
Our model-based fair value for BHP Group is 829.08 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 10, 2026): 1,500 MXN.
What is the quality score of BHPN?
BHP Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHP Group (BHPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 829.08 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 595.54 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,078 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHP Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 829.08 MXN, about −45% upside versus the last price from Sep 10, 2026 of 1,500 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 595.54 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,078 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHP Group (BHPN)?
BHP Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $54.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does BHP Group pay a dividend?
BHP Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHP Group (BHPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHP Group would have to grow free cash flow by +29.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHPN use?
Our models discount BHP Group at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHP Group that is +29.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHP Group (BHPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHP Group grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +29.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHP Group (BHPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHP Group (+29.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.22 %: that much free cash flow BHP Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHP Group (BHPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHP Group it is 829.08 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 1,500 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BHP Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BHPN trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,500 MXN, fair value 829.08 MXN, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,500 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (829.08 MXN). For BHP Group the two are 670.92 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHP Group worth?
The market values BHP Group at about 3.6T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 1,500 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 829.08 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHPN?
Our models span a range for BHP Group: cautious scenario 595.54 MXN, base 829.08 MXN, optimistic 1,078 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 1,500 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BHPN from its 52-week high?
BHP Group trades at 1,500 MXN, about 6% below its 52-week high of 1,590 MXN and 51% above the low of 991.00 MXN (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 829.08 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHP Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHP Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 1,500 MXN, calculated fair value 829.08 MXN (−45%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHPN calculated?
We run BHP Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 829.08 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BHP Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 10, 2026 and stands at 1,500 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 829.08 MXN, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHP Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,078 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (595.54 MXN to 1,078 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BHP Group
How large is the market capitalisation of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The market capitalisation of BHP Group is 3.6T MXN (≈ $200B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of BHP Group is 21.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHP Group is 3.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BHP Group (BHPN)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group are 70.54 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The dividend yield of BHP Group is 0.1% (payout 1.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The net margin of BHP Group is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHP Group is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHP Group (BHPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHP Group is 23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHP Group (BHPN)?
The operating margin of BHP Group is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHP Group (BHPN)?
Revenue at BHP Group is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHP Group (BHPN)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group are growing +27.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHP Group (BHPN) carry?
The net debt of BHP Group is $9.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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