Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 53.14 MXN – 237.90 MXN · fair‑value band 138.61 MXN – 318.82 MXN · the 218.89 MXN price screens below the 240.78 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. produces copper worldwide. It operates through Mining, Transportation, and Infrastructure divisions. The Mining division is involved in the operation of underground and open pit mines, smelters, refineries, and other plants. This division also provides copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc, sulfuric acid, gold, and selenium products.
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Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. produces copper worldwide. It operates through Mining, Transportation, and Infrastructure divisions. The Mining division is involved in the operation of underground and open pit mines, smelters, refineries, and other plants. This division also provides copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc, sulfuric acid, gold, and selenium products. The Transportation division offers general and intermodal freight services by rail, passenger services, as well as auxiliary management services for terminals and intra-terminal hauls; and ground transportation and warehousing. The Infrastructure division engages in building infrastructure and industrial plants, and ocean and land drilling; provision of engineering services, drilling services for oil and water exploration, and energy production services; construction of infrastructure works, project engineering services; operation and highway conservation; real estate project development, and construction and administration of shopping centers. In addition, it is involved in operation of cycle plants and wind farm; generation of energy; and oil transportation. Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) currently trades at 218.89 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 240.78 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: 138.61 MXN (bear) to 318.82 MXN (bull), the price of 218.89 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $14.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7T MXN (≈ $100B) · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 4.77 · EPS (TTM) 12.55 MXN · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 27.1% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 10%, GMEXICOB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2.00 MXN to 20.16 MXN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 138.61 MXNFair Value 240.78 MXNBull 318.82 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.26 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 48%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (34 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GMEXICOB
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 240.78 MXN versus a price of 218.89 MXN, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GMEXICOB?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 240.78 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 218.89 MXN.
What is the quality score of GMEXICOB?
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 240.78 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 138.61 MXN, optimistic scenario 318.82 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 240.78 MXN, about +10% upside versus a price of 218.89 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 138.61 MXN, optimistic scenario 318.82 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 19.5B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GMEXICOB use?
Our models discount Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.22 %: that much free cash flow Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V it is 240.78 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 218.89 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, GMEXICOB trades below its calculated fair value: price 218.89 MXN, fair value 240.78 MXN, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GMEXICOB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (218.89 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (240.78 MXN). For Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V the two are 21.89 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V at about 1.7T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 218.89 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 240.78 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMEXICOB?
Our models span a range for Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 138.61 MXN, base 240.78 MXN, optimistic 318.82 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 218.89 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GMEXICOB?
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 240.78 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 3.9, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of GMEXICOB?
The PEG ratio of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GMEXICOB from its 52-week high?
Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V trades at 218.89 MXN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 223.83 MXN and 118% above the low of 100.33 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 240.78 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 218.89 MXN, calculated fair value 240.78 MXN (+10%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GMEXICOB calculated?
We run Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 240.78 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V right now?
A fairly wide model range (138.61 MXN to 318.82 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 1.7T MXN (≈ $100B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 4.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V are 12.55 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The dividend yield of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 2.3% (payout 40.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The net margin of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 27.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 19.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
The operating margin of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 53.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Revenue at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is growing +32.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V are growing +57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V (GMEXICOB) carry?
The net debt of Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V is 586M MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026