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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation $245, price $217, upside +13.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US3131483063

FA Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

AGM · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $245.48 · Undervalued (+13%)
!Quality 48/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +53.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 56.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·2.81% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$241.74 $79.92 Fair Value $245.48 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $79.92 – $241.74 · fair‑value band $135.60 – $306.85 · the $217.17 price screens below the $245.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments.

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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. The Farm & Ranch segment includes the USDA Securities portfolio, Farm & Ranch loans, and AgVantage securities secured by Farm & Ranch loans. The Corporate AgFinance segment includes loans and AgVantage securities to larger and more complex farming operations, agribusinesses focused on food and fiber processing, and other supply chain production. The Power & Utilities segment includes loans to rural electric generation and transmission cooperatives and distribution cooperatives, as well as AgVantage securities secured by those types of loans. The Broadband Infrastructure segment includes loans to rural fiber, cable/broadband, tower, wireless, local exchange carrier, and data center projects. The Renewable Energy segment includes rural electric, solar, wind, and gas projects. The Funding segment includes debt issuance, hedging, asset/liability management, and capital allocation. The Investments segment includes an investment portfolio, which is held for liquidity purposes. The company is involved in a line of agricultural finance business, including purchasing and retaining eligible loans and securities; guaranteeing the payment of principal and interest on securities that represent interests in, or obligations secured by pools of eligible loans; servicing eligible loans; and issuing long-term standby purchase commitments for designated eligible loans. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.

Stock analysis

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) currently trades at $217.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $245.48, implying the stock looks roughly 11.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $264.55 per share, and 4 of the 8 models we run sit above the $217.17 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $103.68, and 4 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $135.60 (bear) to $306.85 (bull), the price of $217.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $448M in FY2021, a compound +31.0%/yr. Reported net income was $207M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $17.35 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 13%, AGM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $135.60 Fair Value $245.48 Bull $306.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.23 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $136.87 $153.73 $234.09 74
Gordon GGM $62.99 $113.50 $156.25 65
DDM Multi-Stage $62.99 $103.68 $121.25 65
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $128.40 $674.28 $933.17 61
Lynch FV $185.18 $264.55 $343.91 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $62.99 $113.50 $156.25 65
DDM Multi-Stage $62.99 $103.68 $121.25 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $184.11 $245.48 $306.85 61
P/B Multiple $164.34 $219.11 $273.89 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $78.25 $104.86 $156.51 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $136.87 $153.73 $234.09 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.0%
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +59.6% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 330 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 56% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 69% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 12.75× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 29.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 91.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.84× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)51 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)71 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)54 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)56 · sector 66

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $555.89 $356.78 −36%
American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,043 ₹1,101 +6%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,011 ₹1,374 +36%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGM

Frequently asked questions

Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $245.48 versus a price of $217.17, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGM?
Our model-based fair value for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is $245.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $217.17.
What is the quality score of AGM?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $245.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $135.60, optimistic scenario $306.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $245.48, about +13% upside versus a price of $217.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $135.60, optimistic scenario $306.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation pay a dividend?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +63.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGM use?
Our models discount Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation that is +63.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation grew +44.8 % a year. The price currently implies +63.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (+63.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.36 %: that much free cash flow Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation it is $245.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $217.17. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AGM trades below its calculated fair value: price $217.17, fair value $245.48, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($217.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($245.48). For Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation the two are $28.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation worth?
The market values Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $217.17; our models calculate a fair value of $245.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGM?
Our models span a range for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation: cautious scenario $135.60, base $245.48, optimistic $306.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $217.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGM?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $245.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 91.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AGM?
The PEG ratio of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 12.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGM from its 52-week high?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation trades at $217.17, about 10% below its 52-week high of $241.74 and 58% above the low of $137.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $245.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $217.17, calculated fair value $245.48 (+13%), Quality Score 48/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGM calculated?
We run Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $245.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $217.17. Our model-based fair value is $245.48, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($135.60 to $306.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) come from?
Earnings per share at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +30.2 %, EBIT margin −23.0 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The market capitalisation of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Earnings per share at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation are $17.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The dividend yield of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 2.8% (payout 35.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The net margin of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
The operating margin of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is 68.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Revenue at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)?
Earnings per share at Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation are growing +18.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carry?
The net debt of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation is $29.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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