Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Absa Group Ltd $37.24, price $23.70, upside +57.1%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.46 – $32.89 · fair‑value band $24.78 – $46.55 · the $23.70 price screens below the $37.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Absa Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides retail, business, corporate, investment banking, insurance, financial, and wealth management products and services in South Africa and internationally.
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Absa Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides retail, business, corporate, investment banking, insurance, financial, and wealth management products and services in South Africa and internationally. The company offers life and non-life insurance products; residential property-related finance solutions; mortgages; vehicle and asset finance products and services; cash, debit, credit and prepaid cards; personal loans; corporate, relationship, and transactional banking services; mobile payments; and savings and investment products and services. It also provides insurance and financial advisory, stockbroking and portfolio management, and trust administrative services. In addition, the company offers trade and working capital, cash management, payment, and liquidity products and solutions; and investment banking, private equity and infrastructure investment, and commercial property financing services. Further, it provides broker-dealer trading in debt and equity securities; and solicitation, syndication, selling, and arranging of equity and debt products, as well as financial, leasing, and management services. The company was formerly known as Barclays Africa Group Limited and changed its name to Absa Group Limited in May 2018. Absa Group Limited was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Absa Group Ltd ADR (AGRPY) currently trades at $23.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.24, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.97 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $23.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.73, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.78 (bear) to $46.55 (bull), the price of $23.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Absa Group Ltd ADR reported revenue of 195B ZAR in FY2025 versus 77.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +26.1%/yr. Reported net income was 21.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.0B · P/E ratio 7.2 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $3.28 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 57%, AGRPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.78Fair Value $37.24Bull $46.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+76.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.4% vs 4.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.6% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (27 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+7.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)21.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)36.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Absa Group Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGRPY
Frequently asked questions
Is Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.24 versus a price of $23.70, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGRPY?
Our model-based fair value for Absa Group Ltd ADR is $37.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.70.
What is the quality score of AGRPY?
Absa Group Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.78, optimistic scenario $46.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Absa Group Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.24, about +57% upside versus a price of $23.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.78, optimistic scenario $46.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Absa Group Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 102B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Absa Group Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Absa Group Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Absa Group Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGRPY use?
Our models discount Absa Group Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Absa Group Ltd ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Absa Group Ltd ADR grew +26.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Absa Group Ltd ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.25 %: that much free cash flow Absa Group Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Absa Group Ltd ADR it is $37.24 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $23.70. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Absa Group Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AGRPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.70, fair value $37.24, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGRPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.24). For Absa Group Ltd ADR the two are $13.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Absa Group Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Absa Group Ltd ADR at about $12.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $23.70; our models calculate a fair value of $37.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGRPY?
Our models span a range for Absa Group Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $24.78, base $37.24, optimistic $46.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $23.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGRPY?
Absa Group Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Absa Group Ltd ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGRPY from its 52-week high?
Absa Group Ltd ADR trades at $23.70, about 28% below its 52-week high of $32.89 and 12% above the low of $21.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Absa Group Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Absa Group Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $23.70, calculated fair value $37.24 (+57%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGRPY calculated?
We run Absa Group Ltd ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Absa Group Ltd ADR currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $23.70. Our model-based fair value is $37.24, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Absa Group Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($24.78 to $46.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd ADR grew +4.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Absa Group Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The market capitalisation of Absa Group Ltd ADR is $12.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd ADR are $3.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The dividend yield of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 6.4% (payout 46.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The net margin of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
The operating margin of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 36.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Revenue at Absa Group Ltd ADR is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY)?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd ADR are growing −7.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Absa Group Ltd (AGRPY) carry?
The net debt of Absa Group Ltd ADR is 299B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026