Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Argosy Minerals Ltd A$0.08, price A$0.03, upside +138.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0140 – A$0.7750 · fair‑value band A$0.0474 – A$0.0922 · the A$0.0320 price screens below the A$0.0762 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Argosy Minerals Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of lithium properties in Argentina and the United States.
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Argosy Minerals Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of lithium properties in Argentina and the United States. Its flagship asset is the 77.5% owned Rincon Lithium project, which comprises an area of approximately 2,794 hectares of mining titles and mining easement landholdings located in Salta Province, Argentina. Argosy Minerals Limited is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY) currently trades at A$0.0320, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0762, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.2000 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.0320 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0474 (bear) to A$0.0922 (bull), the price of A$0.0320 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Argosy Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$179K in FY2025 versus A$111K in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.3M in FY2025, compounding +38.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$71.0M (≈ $50.0M) · Net margin 4,073% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.2% · Operating margin 263% · Revenue (TTM) A$179K · Revenue growth (YoY) −46.8% · EPS growth (YoY) −77.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 138%, AGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0474Fair Value A$0.0762Bull A$0.0922
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−31.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27% vs 33%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1,532% → −936%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+138% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Return on assets0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−47% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0762 versus a price of A$0.0320, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGY?
Our model-based fair value for Argosy Minerals Ltd is A$0.0762 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0320.
What is the quality score of AGY?
Argosy Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0762 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0474, optimistic scenario A$0.0922. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Argosy Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0762, about +138% upside versus a price of A$0.0320 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0474, optimistic scenario A$0.0922. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Argosy Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$179K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Argosy Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0762 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0320. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Argosy Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AGY trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0320, fair value A$0.0762, a gap of about +138% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0320); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0762). For Argosy Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0442 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Argosy Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Argosy Minerals Ltd at about A$71.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0320; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0762 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGY?
Our models span a range for Argosy Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0474, base A$0.0762, optimistic A$0.0922 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.0320). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Argosy Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGY from its 52-week high?
Argosy Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0320, about 74% below its 52-week high of A$0.1250 and 7% above the low of A$0.0300 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0762 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Argosy Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Argosy Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.0320, calculated fair value A$0.0762 (+138%), Quality Score 49/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGY calculated?
We run Argosy Minerals Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0762, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Argosy Minerals Ltd currently trades 138 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.0320. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0762, about +138% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Argosy Minerals Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0474). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0474 to A$0.0922) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Argosy Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
The market capitalisation of Argosy Minerals Ltd is A$71.0M (≈ $50.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
The net margin of Argosy Minerals Ltd is 4,073% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Argosy Minerals Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Argosy Minerals Ltd is −3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
The operating margin of Argosy Minerals Ltd is 263% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Revenue at Argosy Minerals Ltd is growing −46.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY)?
Earnings per share at Argosy Minerals Ltd are growing −77.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Argosy Minerals Ltd is −A$991K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Argosy Minerals Ltd (AGY) hold?
Argosy Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$4.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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