C3.ai, Inc (AI) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $1.5B

Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($3.45 to $7.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.76 – $76.15 · fair‑value band $3.45 – $7.02 · the $10.22 price screens above the $5.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

C3.ai, Inc (AI) currently trades at $10.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.57, implying the stock looks roughly 45.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $250M. Revenue declined 52.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -63.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $66.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.45 (bear case) to $7.02 (bull case); at $10.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -46%, AI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($6.78) versus Asset-Based ($3.09). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

C3.ai, Inc. operates as an enterprise artificial intelligence application software company. The company offers C3 agentic AI platform, an application development and runtime environment that enables customers to design, develop, and deploy enterprise AI applications; C3 AI CRM Suite, a customer relationship management solution; C3 Generative AI that enables …

Full company description

C3.ai, Inc. operates as an enterprise artificial intelligence application software company. The company offers C3 agentic AI platform, an application development and runtime environment that enables customers to design, develop, and deploy enterprise AI applications; C3 AI CRM Suite, a customer relationship management solution; C3 Generative AI that enables to locate, retrieve, present information, disparate data stores, applications, and enterprise information systems; C3 AI Health Suite to accelerate healthcare innovation; and C3 AI Financial Services Suite. Its C3 AI Applications include C3 AI Asset Performance suite, which consists of C3 AI Reliability, C3 AI Process Optimization, and C3 AI Energy Management applications. The company's C3 AI Supply Chain Suite comprises C3 AI Supply Network Risk, C3 AI Inventory Optimization, C3 AI Demand Forecasting, C3 AI Production Schedule Optimization, and C3 AI Sourcing Optimization solutions; C3 AI Sustainability Suite includes C3 AI ESG and C3 AI Energy Management applications to decrease greenhouse gas emissions; and C3 AI Defense & Intelligence Suite. It provides C3 AI State and Local Government Suite that includes various applications, such as C3 Law Enforcement for state, county, and municipal law enforcement agencies; C3 AI Residential Property Appraisal and C3 AI Commercial Property Appraisal for county property assessors and appraisers; and C3 Generative AI for Government Programs and C3 Generative AI for Constituent Services for federal, state, and local governments. It has strategic partnerships with Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, McKinsey & Company, Baker Hughes, Booz Allen, and others. The company has a strategic alliance with SMX Group, LLC for the development of mission critical AI in the secure environments. The company was formerly known as C3 IoT, Inc. and changed its name to C3.ai, Inc. in June 2019. C3.ai, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

C3.ai, Inc reported revenue of $250M in FY2026 versus $253M in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$470M in FY2026.

AI screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.