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C3 Ai Inc (AI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of C3 Ai Inc $3.85, price $10.86, upside -64.6%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US12468P1049

CA C3 Ai Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

C3 Ai Inc

AI · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.85 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -188.0% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Insider activity 54/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$66.41 $7.76 Fair Value $3.85 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.76 – $66.41 · fair‑value band $2.54 – $4.81 · the $10.86 price screens above the $3.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

C3.ai, Inc. operates as an enterprise artificial intelligence application software company.

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C3.ai, Inc. operates as an enterprise artificial intelligence application software company. The company offers C3 agentic AI platform, an application development and runtime environment that enables customers to design, develop, and deploy enterprise AI applications; C3 AI CRM Suite, a customer relationship management solution; C3 Generative AI that enables to locate, retrieve, present information, disparate data stores, applications, and enterprise information systems; C3 AI Health Suite to accelerate healthcare innovation; and C3 AI Financial Services Suite. Its C3 AI Applications include C3 AI Asset Performance suite, which consists of C3 AI Reliability, C3 AI Process Optimization, and C3 AI Energy Management applications. The company's C3 AI Supply Chain Suite comprises C3 AI Supply Network Risk, C3 AI Inventory Optimization, C3 AI Demand Forecasting, C3 AI Production Schedule Optimization, and C3 AI Sourcing Optimization solutions; C3 AI Sustainability Suite includes C3 AI ESG and C3 AI Energy Management applications to decrease greenhouse gas emissions; and C3 AI Defense & Intelligence Suite. It provides C3 AI State and Local Government Suite that includes various applications, such as C3 Law Enforcement for state, county, and municipal law enforcement agencies; C3 AI Residential Property Appraisal and C3 AI Commercial Property Appraisal for county property assessors and appraisers; and C3 Generative AI for Government Programs and C3 Generative AI for Constituent Services for federal, state, and local governments. It has strategic partnerships with Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, McKinsey & Company, Baker Hughes, Booz Allen, and others. The company has a strategic alliance with SMX Group, LLC for the development of mission critical AI in the secure environments. The company was formerly known as C3 IoT, Inc. and changed its name to C3.ai, Inc. in June 2019. C3.ai, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

Stock analysis

C3 Ai Inc (AI) currently trades at $10.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.85, implying the stock looks roughly 182.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.54 (bear) to $4.81 (bull), the price of $10.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

C3 Ai Inc reported revenue of $250M in FY2026 versus $253M in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$470M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $1.5B · P/S ratio 5.97 · EPS (TTM) $−3.35 · Net margin −188% · Return on equity −63.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.0% · Operating margin −214% · Revenue (TTM) $250M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −65%, AI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.54 Fair Value $3.85 Bull $4.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.31 $3.09 $4.61 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.31 $3.09 $4.61 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 3
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−35.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−32.9% (2021) → −194.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AI screens 182% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 382 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −33% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −188% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −53% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.33× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 6.10× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $149.20 $117.84 −21%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $184.99 $43.02 −77%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $250.06 $35.15 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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C3 Ai Inc · Fair Value
$3.85 −182%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "C3 Ai Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AI

Frequently asked questions

Is C3 Ai Inc (AI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.85 versus a price of $10.86, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AI?
Our model-based fair value for C3 Ai Inc is $3.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.86.
What is the quality score of AI?
C3 Ai Inc has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.54, optimistic scenario $4.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the C3 Ai Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.85, about −65% upside versus a price of $10.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.54, optimistic scenario $4.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
C3 Ai Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $250M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For C3 Ai Inc it is $3.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.86. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is C3 Ai Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AI trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.86, fair value $3.85, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.85). For C3 Ai Inc the two are $7.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is C3 Ai Inc worth?
The market values C3 Ai Inc at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.86; our models calculate a fair value of $3.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AI?
Our models span a range for C3 Ai Inc: cautious scenario $2.54, base $3.85, optimistic $4.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
Balance-sheet figures for C3 Ai Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −63.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AI from its 52-week high?
C3 Ai Inc trades at $10.86, about 45% below its 52-week high of $19.66 and 40% above the low of $7.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to C3 Ai Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is C3 Ai Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.86, calculated fair value $3.85 (−65%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AI calculated?
We run C3 Ai Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. C3 Ai Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.86. Our model-based fair value is $3.85, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with C3 Ai Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.54 to $4.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of C3 Ai Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The market capitalisation of C3 Ai Inc is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of C3 Ai Inc is 5.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
Earnings per share at C3 Ai Inc are $−3.35. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The net margin of C3 Ai Inc is −188% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of C3 Ai Inc is −63.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of C3 Ai Inc is −33.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
The operating margin of C3 Ai Inc is −214% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at C3 Ai Inc (AI)?
Revenue at C3 Ai Inc is growing −52.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does C3 Ai Inc (AI) generate?
The free cash flow of C3 Ai Inc is −$191M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does C3 Ai Inc (AI) hold?
C3 Ai Inc holds more cash than debt, $66.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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