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Air T, Inc (AIRT) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $60.3M

AT Air T, Inc logo Air T, Inc AIRT · US
Price$29.00
Fair Value$6.15
Upside-78.8%
Quality51/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -2.5% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 14/100
Evidence: Medium Range $1.23 – $24.60 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $0.3800 to $6.15 (+1,518.4%) since Aug 7, 2026. Share price +6.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 79% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($1.23 to $24.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$40.50 $9.68 Fair Value $6.15 Dec 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.68 – $40.50 · fair‑value band $1.23 – $24.60 · the $29.00 price screens above the $6.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Air T, Inc (AIRT) currently trades at $29.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.15, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Air T, Inc generated revenue of $272M at a net margin of -2.5%. Revenue declined 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -48.3%. Net debt stands at $123M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.23 (bear case) to $24.60 (bull case); at $29.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -79%, AIRT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $6.15 $294.80 80
Gordon GGM $3.77 $6.55 $8.33 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.77 $6.15 $6.94 61
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.77 $6.55 $8.33 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.77 $6.15 $6.94 61
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.15 $294.80 80

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($6.15) versus Dividend Discount ($6.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $272M
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.7%
Net margin -2.5%
Return on equity -48.3%
Free cash flow $7.8M FY2025
Operating margin -5.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-2.45
EPS growth (YoY) +76.9%
Net debt $123M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Air T, Inc. provides overnight air cargo, ground equipment sale, and commercial jet engines and parts in the United States and internationally. The company's Overnight Air Cargo segment offers air express delivery services. As of March 31, 2025, this segment had 103 aircraft under the dry-lease agreements with FedEx.

Full company description

Air T, Inc. provides overnight air cargo, ground equipment sale, and commercial jet engines and parts in the United States and internationally. The company's Overnight Air Cargo segment offers air express delivery services. As of March 31, 2025, this segment had 103 aircraft under the dry-lease agreements with FedEx. Its Ground Support Equipment segment manufactures, sells, and services aircraft deicers, scissor-type lifts, military and civilian decontamination units, flight-line tow tractors, glycol recovery vehicles, and other specialized equipment. This segment sells its products to passenger and cargo airlines, ground handling companies, the United States Air Force, airports, and industrial customers. The company's Commercial Aircraft, Engines and Parts segment offers commercial aircraft trading, leasing, and parts solutions; commercial aircraft storage, storage maintenance, and aircraft disassembly/part-out services; commercial aircraft parts sales, exchanges, procurement services, consignment programs, and overhaul and repair services; and aircraft instrumentation, avionics, and various electrical accessories for civilian, military transport, regional/commuter and business/commercial jet, and turboprop aircraft to airlines and commercial aircraft leasing companies. This segment also provides composite aircraft structures, and repair and support services, as well as aircraft service and maintenance services. Its Digital Solutions segment develops and provides digital aviation and other business services to customers within the aviation industry. Air T, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Air T, Inc reported revenue of $292M in FY2025 versus $175M in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.1M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$292M
Latest YoY
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (37Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Revenue +13.6%/yr
FY21 $175M
FY22 $177M
FY23 $247M
FY24 $287M
FY25 $292M
Net income
FY21 −$7.3M
FY22 $10.9M
FY23 −$12.3M
FY24 −$6.8M
FY25 −$6.1M

AIRT screens 79% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air T, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIRT

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 385 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.22× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 17
PAST 0 · sector 18
HEALTH 100 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 7.20 THB 14.40 THB +100%
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PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,860 IDR 9,720 IDR +100%
Koç Holding KCHOL 205.80 TRY 182.26 TRY -11%
SRF Limited SRF ₹2,585 ₹859.71 -67%
Empresas Copec S.A COPEC 6,030 CLP 10,809 CLP +79%
Posco International Corporation 047050 54,300 KRW 71,119 KRW +31%
Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA ₹2,839 ₹723.80 -75%
Doosan Corporation 000155 436,000 KRW 93,413 KRW -79%
Thermax Limited THERMAX ₹4,002 ₹1,343 -66%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Air T, Inc (AIRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.15 versus a price of $29.00, about −79% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIRT?
Our model-based fair value for Air T, Inc is $6.15 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $29.00.
What is the quality score of AIRT?
Air T, Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Air T, Inc (AIRT)?
Air T, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $272M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AIRT?
The net profit margin of Air T, Inc is about -2.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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