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Air T Inc (AIRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Air T Inc $12.15, price $29.03, upside -58.2%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US0092071010

AT Air T Inc logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Air T Inc

AIRT · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $12.15 · Strongly overvalued (−58.2%)
!Quality 51/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/8)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $12.15 to $29.83
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$40.50 $14.09 Fair Value $12.15 Jan 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.09 – $40.50 · fair‑value band $12.15 – $29.83 · the $29.03 price screens above the $12.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Air T, Inc. provides overnight air cargo, ground equipment sale, and commercial jet engines and parts in the United States and internationally. The company's Overnight Air Cargo segment offers air express delivery services. As of March 31, 2025, this segment had 103 aircraft under the dry-lease agreements with FedEx.

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Air T, Inc. provides overnight air cargo, ground equipment sale, and commercial jet engines and parts in the United States and internationally. The company's Overnight Air Cargo segment offers air express delivery services. As of March 31, 2025, this segment had 103 aircraft under the dry-lease agreements with FedEx. Its Ground Support Equipment segment manufactures, sells, and services aircraft deicers, scissor-type lifts, military and civilian decontamination units, flight-line tow tractors, glycol recovery vehicles, and other specialized equipment. This segment sells its products to passenger and cargo airlines, ground handling companies, the United States Air Force, airports, and industrial customers. The company's Commercial Aircraft, Engines and Parts segment offers commercial aircraft trading, leasing, and parts solutions; commercial aircraft storage, storage maintenance, and aircraft disassembly/part-out services; commercial aircraft parts sales, exchanges, procurement services, consignment programs, and overhaul and repair services; and aircraft instrumentation, avionics, and various electrical accessories for civilian, military transport, regional/commuter and business/commercial jet, and turboprop aircraft to airlines and commercial aircraft leasing companies. This segment also provides composite aircraft structures, and repair and support services, as well as aircraft service and maintenance services. Its Digital Solutions segment develops and provides digital aviation and other business services to customers within the aviation industry. Air T, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock analysis

Air T Inc (AIRT) currently trades at $29.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.15, implying the stock looks roughly 138.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $33.01 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the $29.03 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $10.02, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $12.15 (bear) to $29.83 (bull), the price of $29.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Air T Inc reported revenue of $292M in FY2025 versus $175M in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $79.8M · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) $−2.45 · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −48.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin −5.3% · Revenue (TTM) $272M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −58%, AIRT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $12.15 Fair Value $12.15 Bull $29.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $11.91 $36.09 $68.82 75
Growth DCF $11.43 $33.01 $60.49 74
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $10.02 $26.73 72
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $11.91 $36.09 $68.82 75
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $1.23 69
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $10.02 $26.73 72
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $6.05 $16.57 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.02 $15.87 $34.06 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a $1.19 62
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $11.43 $33.01 $60.49 74
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $4.23 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.1% a year for the price.

AIRT screens 139% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 358 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −58.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −1.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 10.2× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Air T Inc · Fair Value
$12.15 −139%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air T Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIRT

Frequently asked questions

Is Air T Inc (AIRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.15 versus a price of $29.03, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIRT?
Our model-based fair value for Air T Inc is $12.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.03.
What is the quality score of AIRT?
Air T Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.15, optimistic scenario $29.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air T Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.15, about −58% upside versus a price of $29.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.15, optimistic scenario $29.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Air T Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $272M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air T Inc (AIRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air T Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIRT use?
Our models discount Air T Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air T Inc that is +16.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air T Inc (AIRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Air T Inc grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies +16.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air T Inc (AIRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air T Inc (+16.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.79 %: that much free cash flow Air T Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air T Inc it is $12.15 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $29.03. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air T Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AIRT trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.03, fair value $12.15, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.15). For Air T Inc the two are $16.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air T Inc worth?
The market values Air T Inc at about $79.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $29.03; our models calculate a fair value of $12.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIRT?
Our models span a range for Air T Inc: cautious scenario $12.15, base $12.15, optimistic $29.83 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $29.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Air T Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIRT from its 52-week high?
Air T Inc trades at $29.03, about 15% below its 52-week high of $34.26 and 58% above the low of $18.35 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air T Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air T Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $29.03, calculated fair value $12.15 (−58%), Quality Score 51/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIRT calculated?
We run Air T Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Air T Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $29.03. Our model-based fair value is $12.15, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Air T Inc right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($12.15 to $29.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Air T Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The market capitalisation of Air T Inc is $79.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air T Inc is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Earnings per share at Air T Inc are $−2.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The net margin of Air T Inc is −2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air T Inc is −48.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air T Inc is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air T Inc (AIRT)?
The operating margin of Air T Inc is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Revenue at Air T Inc is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Air T Inc (AIRT)?
Earnings per share at Air T Inc are growing +76.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Air T Inc (AIRT) carry?
The net debt of Air T Inc is $123M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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