Swire Pacific A (0019) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Swire Pacific A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$296B (≈ $37.8B) · ISIN HK0019000162
At a glance
SPSwire Pacific A0019 · HK
PriceHK$107.10
Fair ValueHK$36.88
Upside−65.6%
Quality58/100
A solid business, but trading 190% above our fair value of HK$36.88.
As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Swire Pacific A is HK$36.88 per share against a price of HK$107.10, so the fair value sits 66% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.73% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Weak on future: 27 out of 100
!Weak on past: 4 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange HK$27.66 to HK$46.10
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from HK$35.70 to HK$36.88 (+3.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$46.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$27.22 – HK$107.70 · fair‑value band HK$27.66 – HK$46.10 · the HK$107.10 price screens above the HK$36.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Swire Pacific A (0019) currently trades at HK$107.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.88, implying the stock looks roughly 190.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$62.84 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$107.10 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.26, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Pacific A generated revenue of HK$90.5B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at HK$75.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Scenario range: HK$27.66 (bear) to HK$46.10 (bull), the price of HK$107.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −66%, 0019 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio38.7as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio1.26P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)HK$0.5600price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.7
Dividend yield3.7%
Net margin3.2%FY2025
Return on equity1.1%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)2.8%avg 5y
Operating margin11.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)HK$90.5BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+5.4%3y avg −0.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+17.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowHK$9.0BFY2025
Net debtHK$75.1BFY2025 · ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality58/100
Of which business quality 56
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Profitability16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance100
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties.
Full company description
Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties. This division's property investment portfolio comprises office towers, shopping malls, hotels, retail space, star hotels, and serviced apartments, as well as residential projects; and trading portfolio consists of residential properties. It also owns and manages hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as owns interests in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in the United States. The company's Aviation division provides flight catering, and passenger and ramp handling services; and owns and operates a cargo terminal at Hong Kong International Airport, as well as offers aircraft maintenance and modification services. Its Beverages division owns rights to manufacture, market, and distribute beverages to consumers. The company's Trading & Industrial division markets, retails, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories through its retail outlets; sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and scooters; operates a chain of bakeries; packages and sells sugar products under the Taikoo Sugar brand; and offers waste management, business consultancy, and financial services, as well as engages in property trading and investment activities. Swire Pacific Limited was founded in 1816 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Swire Pacific Limited operates as a subsidiary of John Swire & Sons (H.K.) Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Swire Pacific A reported revenue of HK$90.5B in FY2025 versus HK$90.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$90.5B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−14.0%
Dividend yield3.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −14.0% vs 10Y −11.5%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.7% (2020) → 4.9% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop145% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD
Revenue−0.1%/yr
FY21HK$90.8B
FY22HK$91.2B
FY23HK$94.8B
FY24HK$82.0B
FY25HK$90.5B
Net income−13.0%/yr
FY21HK$5.1B
FY22HK$4.2B
FY23HK$28.9B
FY24HK$4.3B
FY25HK$2.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+1.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share+5.0 %
of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.8 %
EBIT margin−5.6 %
Tax rate−0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+2.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Pacific A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0019
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 377 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF4.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.26× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Swire Pacific A deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+7.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+2.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price6.16 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 28
FUTURE27· sector 16
PAST4· sector 17
HEALTH86· sector 89
DIVIDEND75· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
Is Swire Pacific A (0019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.88 versus a price of HK$107.10, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0019?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Pacific A is HK$36.88 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$107.10.
What is the quality score of 0019?
Swire Pacific A has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swire Pacific A (0019)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$36.88 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$27.66, optimistic scenario HK$46.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swire Pacific A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$36.88, about −66% upside versus a price of HK$107.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$27.66, optimistic scenario HK$46.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swire Pacific A (0019)?
Swire Pacific A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$90.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0019?
The net profit margin of Swire Pacific A is about 3.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Swire Pacific A pay a dividend?
Swire Pacific A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swire Pacific A (0019)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swire Pacific A would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0019 use?
Our models discount Swire Pacific A at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Swire Pacific A (0019)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swire Pacific A it is HK$36.88 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of HK$107.10. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swire Pacific A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, 0019 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$107.10, fair value HK$36.88, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0019?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$107.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$36.88). For Swire Pacific A the two are HK$70.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swire Pacific A worth?
The market values Swire Pacific A at about HK$296B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is HK$107.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$36.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0019?
Our models span a range for Swire Pacific A: cautious scenario HK$27.66, base HK$36.88, optimistic HK$46.10 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price HK$107.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0019?
Swire Pacific A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.7 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$36.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 0019?
The PEG ratio of Swire Pacific A is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swire Pacific A (0019)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swire Pacific A (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0019 from its 52-week high?
Swire Pacific A trades at HK$107.10, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$91.55 and 76% above the low of HK$60.68 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$36.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swire Pacific A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swire Pacific A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price HK$107.10, calculated fair value HK$36.88 (−66%), Quality Score 58/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0019 calculated?
We run Swire Pacific A through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$36.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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