Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Aeris Resources Ltd A$0.37, price A$0.51, upside -25.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0850 – A$1.56 · fair‑value band A$0.2550 – A$0.4845 · the A$0.5050 price screens above the A$0.3740 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Aeris Resources Limited explores, produces, and sells precious metals in Australia. It explores for copper, zinc, gold, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Straits Resources Limited and changed its name to Aeris Resources Limited in December 2015. Aeris Resources Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) currently trades at A$0.5050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3740, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.5100 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$0.5050 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1400, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2550 (bear) to A$0.4845 (bull), the price of A$0.5050 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aeris Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$577M in FY2025 versus A$431M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$45.2M in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$561M (≈ $394M) · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0600 · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 23.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −26%, AIS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2550Fair Value A$0.3740Bull A$0.4845
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.24× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.67× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF12.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA2.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)67· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3740 versus a price of A$0.5050, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIS?
Our model-based fair value for Aeris Resources Ltd is A$0.3740 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5050.
What is the quality score of AIS?
Aeris Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3740 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2550, optimistic scenario A$0.4845. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aeris Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3740, about −26% upside versus a price of A$0.5050 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2550, optimistic scenario A$0.4845. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Aeris Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$591M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aeris Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIS use?
Our models discount Aeris Resources Ltd at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aeris Resources Ltd that is +11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aeris Resources Ltd grew +20.6 % a year. The price currently implies +11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aeris Resources Ltd (+11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.54 %: that much free cash flow Aeris Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aeris Resources Ltd it is A$0.3740 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.5050. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aeris Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AIS trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.5050, fair value A$0.3740, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3740). For Aeris Resources Ltd the two are A$0.1310 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aeris Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Aeris Resources Ltd at about A$561M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5050; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3740 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIS?
Our models span a range for Aeris Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2550, base A$0.3740, optimistic A$0.4845 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.5050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIS?
Aeris Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3740 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aeris Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIS from its 52-week high?
Aeris Resources Ltd trades at A$0.5050, about 25% below its 52-week high of A$0.6750 and 46% above the low of A$0.3450 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3740 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aeris Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aeris Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.5050, calculated fair value A$0.3740 (−26%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIS calculated?
We run Aeris Resources Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3740, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Aeris Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.5050. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3740, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aeris Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.4845). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2550 to A$0.4845) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Aeris Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The market capitalisation of Aeris Resources Ltd is A$561M (≈ $394M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aeris Resources Ltd is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Earnings per share at Aeris Resources Ltd are A$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The net margin of Aeris Resources Ltd is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aeris Resources Ltd is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aeris Resources Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
The operating margin of Aeris Resources Ltd is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Revenue at Aeris Resources Ltd is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS)?
Earnings per share at Aeris Resources Ltd are growing +53.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) carry?
The net debt of Aeris Resources Ltd is A$27.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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