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Aeris Resources Limited (AIS) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$561M

AR Aeris Resources Limited AIS · AU
PriceA$0.4300
Fair ValueA$0.4335
Upside+0.8%
Quality47/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range A$0.2805 – A$0.5440 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +16.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (A$0.2805 to A$0.5440) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$1.56 A$0.0850 Fair Value A$0.4335 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0850 – A$1.56 · fair‑value band A$0.2805 – A$0.5440 · the A$0.4300 price screens below the A$0.4335 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Aeris Resources Limited (AIS) currently trades at A$0.4300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4335, implying the stock looks roughly 0.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Aeris Resources Limited generated revenue of A$591M at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at A$27.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$0.2805 (bear case) to A$0.5440 (bull case); at A$0.4300, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 177% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 1%, AIS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$0.2700 A$0.4700 A$0.7900 80
Residual Income A$0.2000 A$0.2300 A$0.4800 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.4300 A$0.8100 A$1.61 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.2900 A$0.4300 A$0.8300 38
Owner Earnings A$0.3400 A$0.7200 A$1.43 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.3900 A$0.7100 A$1.38 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.6700 A$1.27 A$2.47 41
5Y P/E Exit A$0.3500 A$0.8000 A$1.42 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.3400 A$0.8200 A$1.14 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$0.5400 A$1.37 A$2.86 37
10Y P/E Exit A$0.3300 A$0.7500 A$1.45 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.2100 A$1.43 A$2.01 54
Lynch FV A$0.7400 A$1.06 A$1.37 50
PEG = 1.0 A$0.7400 A$1.06 A$1.37 46
EPV A$0.3400 A$0.3900 A$0.4300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.3800 A$0.5100 A$0.6400 63
P/S Multiple A$0.3800 A$0.5100 A$0.6400 58
P/B Multiple A$0.3800 A$0.5100 A$0.6400 55
EV/EBIT A$0.5000 A$0.6700 A$0.8400 53
EV/EBITDA A$0.8300 A$1.11 A$1.39 54
EV/Revenue A$0.4000 A$0.5700 A$0.7400 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1100 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.2700 A$0.4700 A$0.7900 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.4300 A$0.8100 A$1.61 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.2000 A$0.2300 A$0.4800 76
ROIC Compounder A$0.4400 A$0.6400 A$0.7600 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.9100 A$1.30 A$1.69 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$1.30) versus Asset-Based (A$0.1400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$591M
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6%
Net margin 10.8%
Return on equity 16.8%
Free cash flow A$32.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 6.3
More key figures
Operating margin 23.3%
EPS (TTM) A$0.0600
EPS growth (YoY) +53.3%
Net debt A$27.2M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 11
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aeris Resources Limited explores, produces, and sells precious metals in Australia. It explores for copper, zinc, gold, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Straits Resources Limited and changed its name to Aeris Resources Limited in December 2015. Aeris Resources Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aeris Resources Limited reported revenue of A$577M in FY2025 versus A$431M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$45.2M in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$577M
Latest YoY
+6.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.6%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.3%
Revenue +7.6%/yr
FY21 A$431M
FY22 A$387M
FY23 A$612M
FY24 A$540M
FY25 A$577M
Net income −7.3%/yr
FY21 A$61.2M
FY22 A$6.0M
FY23 −A$140M
FY24 −A$24.3M
FY25 A$45.2M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aeris Resources Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIS

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside +1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.13× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.67× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 34 · sector 0
FUTURE 23 · sector 23
PAST 67 · sector 0
HEALTH 94 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.89 $8.95 -40%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.20 ¥16.15 -11%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aeris Resources Limited (AIS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.4335 versus a price of A$0.4300, about +1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AIS?
Our model-based fair value for Aeris Resources Limited is A$0.4335 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$0.4300.
What is the quality score of AIS?
Aeris Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Aeris Resources Limited (AIS)?
Aeris Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$591M (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AIS?
The net profit margin of Aeris Resources Limited is about 10.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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