AFC Ajax NV (AJAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of AFC Ajax NV €2.07, price €8.04, upside -74.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.04 – €15.42 · fair‑value band €1.45 – €2.69 · the €8.04 price screens above the €2.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
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AFC Ajax NV operates a football club in the Netherlands. It also operates a stadium and a youth academy. The company was founded in 1900 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
AFC Ajax NV (AJAX) currently trades at €8.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.07, 74.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €6.91 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the €8.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.6400, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €1.45 (bear) to €2.69 (bull), the price of €8.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AFC Ajax NV reported revenue of €188M in FY2026 versus €189M in FY2022, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap €147M · P/E ratio 73.1 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) €0.1100 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% · Operating margin −43.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −74%, AJAX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.45Fair Value €2.07Bull €2.69
Price €8.04 · Upside -74.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0295 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−37.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−37.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−37.3% vs −25.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−75% → −10%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−74.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.0% · Above median
Return on assets−8.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−43.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)73.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.78× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.07 versus a price of €8.04, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJAX?
Our model-based fair value for AFC Ajax NV is €2.07 (as of Oct 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.04.
What is the quality score of AJAX?
AFC Ajax NV has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.07 (as of Oct 5, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.45, optimistic scenario €2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AFC Ajax NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.07, about −74% upside versus a price of €8.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.45, optimistic scenario €2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
AFC Ajax NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €188M (latest available figure, as of Oct 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AFC Ajax NV it is €2.07 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026), against a price of €8.04. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AFC Ajax NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, AJAX trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.04, fair value €2.07, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.07). For AFC Ajax NV the two are €5.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AFC Ajax NV worth?
The market values AFC Ajax NV at about €147M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 5, 2026). Per share that is €8.04; our models calculate a fair value of €2.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJAX?
Our models span a range for AFC Ajax NV: cautious scenario €1.45, base €2.07, optimistic €2.69 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026, price €8.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJAX?
AFC Ajax NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 73.1 (as of Oct 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Balance-sheet figures for AFC Ajax NV (as of Oct 5, 2026): return on equity 1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJAX from its 52-week high?
AFC Ajax NV trades at €8.04, about 15% below its 52-week high of €9.50 and at the low of €8.04 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AFC Ajax NV?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AFC Ajax NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 5, 2026: price €8.04, calculated fair value €2.07 (−74%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJAX calculated?
We run AFC Ajax NV through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AFC Ajax NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was €8.04. Our model-based fair value is €2.07, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AFC Ajax NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€1.45 to €2.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AFC Ajax NV
How large is the market capitalisation of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The market capitalisation of AFC Ajax NV is €147M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AFC Ajax NV is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Earnings per share at AFC Ajax NV are €0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 73.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The net margin of AFC Ajax NV is 1.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AFC Ajax NV is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AFC Ajax NV is −11.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
The operating margin of AFC Ajax NV is −43.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Revenue at AFC Ajax NV is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AFC Ajax NV (AJAX)?
Earnings per share at AFC Ajax NV are growing −64.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AFC Ajax NV (AJAX) generate?
The free cash flow of AFC Ajax NV is −€41.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AFC Ajax NV (AJAX) carry?
The net debt of AFC Ajax NV is €63.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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