Gascogne SA (ALBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gascogne SA €2.92, price €2.10, upside +38.9%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.96 – €4.90 · fair‑value band €2.18 – €4.35 · the €2.10 price screens below the €2.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Gascogne SA engages in the production and sale of wood, paper, industrial and consumer sacks, and laminates in France, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Wood, Paper, Bags, and Flexible segments.
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Gascogne SA engages in the production and sale of wood, paper, industrial and consumer sacks, and laminates in France, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Wood, Paper, Bags, and Flexible segments. The company offers decorative wood, wood frame walls, and wood siding products; and machine glazed natural kraft papers, natural sack kraft papers, and technical coated papers for packaging and industrial uses. It also provides paper, plastic, and hybrid sacks used for packing human food and animal feed, construction materials, pet food, chemicals seeds, and mineral products; and multilayer laminates, release liners, gummed products, and printed materials used for packing flexible packaging products, insulation and construction, envelopes and secure parcels, health and medical, composite materials, and adhesives and bands. The company was formerly known as Groupe Gascogne SA and changed its name to Gascogne SA in 2006. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Mimizan, France.
Stock analysis
Gascogne SA (ALBI) currently trades at €2.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.92, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: €2.18 (bear) to €4.35 (bull), the price of €2.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gascogne SA reported revenue of €400M in FY2025 versus €399M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€10.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €76.9M · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) €−0.2700 · Net margin −2.6% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin −2.0% · Revenue (TTM) €400M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 39%, ALBI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.18Fair Value €2.92Bull €4.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.7% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+39% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gascogne SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALBI
Frequently asked questions
Is Gascogne SA (ALBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.92 versus a price of €2.10, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALBI?
Our model-based fair value for Gascogne SA is €2.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.10.
What is the quality score of ALBI?
Gascogne SA has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.18, optimistic scenario €4.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gascogne SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.92, about +39% upside versus a price of €2.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.18, optimistic scenario €4.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Gascogne SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €400M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gascogne SA it is €2.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €2.10. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gascogne SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALBI trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.10, fair value €2.92, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.92). For Gascogne SA the two are €0.8160 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gascogne SA worth?
The market values Gascogne SA at about €76.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €2.10; our models calculate a fair value of €2.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALBI?
Our models span a range for Gascogne SA: cautious scenario €2.18, base €2.92, optimistic €4.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €2.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALBI?
The PEG ratio of Gascogne SA is 9.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gascogne SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −4.9%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALBI from its 52-week high?
Gascogne SA trades at €2.10, about 19% below its 52-week high of €2.60 and 7% above the low of €1.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gascogne SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gascogne SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €2.10, calculated fair value €2.92 (+39%), Quality Score 19/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALBI calculated?
We run Gascogne SA through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gascogne SA currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €2.10. Our model-based fair value is €2.92, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gascogne SA right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (19/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€2.18 to €4.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gascogne SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The market capitalisation of Gascogne SA is €76.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gascogne SA is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Earnings per share at Gascogne SA are €−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The net margin of Gascogne SA is −2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gascogne SA is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gascogne SA is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The operating margin of Gascogne SA is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Revenue at Gascogne SA is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Earnings per share at Gascogne SA are growing +164% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gascogne SA (ALBI) generate?
The free cash flow of Gascogne SA is −€62.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gascogne SA (ALBI) carry?
The net debt of Gascogne SA is €217M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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