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Gascogne SA (ALBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gascogne SA stock €2.92, price €2.08, upside +40.2%, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical FR · ISIN FR0000124414

GS Gascogne SA logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Gascogne SA

ALBI · PA
Speculative

The stock costs 29% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value €2.92 · Undervalued
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 5% above the price (€2.18).
Moderate debt
Quality 21/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.6 %/yr in EUR)
Loss-making · -2.6% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution⚠ Thinly traded⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€4.88 €1.90 Fair Value €2.92 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.90 – €4.88 · fair‑value band €2.18 – €4.35 · the €2.08 price screens below the €2.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Gascogne SA engages in the production and sale of wood, paper, industrial and consumer sacks, and laminates in France, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Wood, Paper, Bags, and Flexible segments.

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The company offers decorative wood, wood frame walls, and wood siding products; and machine glazed natural kraft papers, natural sack kraft papers, and technical coated papers for packaging and industrial uses.

It also provides paper, plastic, and hybrid sacks used for packing human food and animal feed, construction materials, pet food, chemicals seeds, and mineral products; and multilayer laminates, release liners, gummed products, and printed materials used for packing flexible packaging products, insulation and construction, envelopes and secure parcels, health and medical, composite materials, and adhesives and bands.

The company was formerly known as Groupe Gascogne SA and changed its name to Gascogne SA in 2006. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Mimizan, France.

Stock analysis

Gascogne SA (ALBI) currently trades at €2.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.92, implying the stock looks roughly 29% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: €2.18 (bear) to €4.35 (bull), the price of €2.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Gascogne SA reported revenue of €400M in FY2025 versus €399M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€10.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €76.1M Micro · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) €−0.2700 · Net margin −2.6% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.0% · Revenue (TTM) €400M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 40%, ALBI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.18 Fair Value €2.92 Bull €4.35
Price €2.08 · Upside +40.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) €2.56 €3.43 €5.12 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.56 €3.43 €5.12 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 25
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 51
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 36
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 24
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 1
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.7% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +40.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −2.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.90× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.19× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 31.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 9.28× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)87 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)55 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Crown Holdings CCK $121.30 $121.85 +0% vs ALBI
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $44.09 $44.16 +0% vs ALBI
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €9.68 €9.67 +0% vs ALBI
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc REYN $24.11 $19.83 −18% vs ALBI
Amcor plc AMCR $45.14 $36.70 −19% vs ALBI
Ball Corporation BALL $65.92 $48.92 −26% vs ALBI
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $186.78 $125.58 −33% vs ALBI
SIG Group SIGN CHF 15.22 CHF 9.03 −41% vs ALBI
Packaging Corporation PKG $249.70 $130.52 −48% vs ALBI
International Paper Company IP $34.53 $6.91 −80% vs ALBI

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Gascogne SA: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gascogne SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALBI

Frequently asked questions

Is Gascogne SA (ALBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.92 versus a price of €2.08, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALBI?
Our model-based fair value for Gascogne SA is €2.92 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.08.
What is the quality score of ALBI?
Gascogne SA has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.92 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.18, optimistic scenario €4.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gascogne SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.92, about +40% upside versus a price of €2.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.18, optimistic scenario €4.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Gascogne SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €400M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gascogne SA it is €2.92 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €2.08. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Gascogne SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ALBI trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.08, fair value €2.92, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.92). For Gascogne SA the two are €0.8355 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gascogne SA worth?
The market values Gascogne SA at about €76.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €2.08; our models calculate a fair value of €2.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALBI?
Our models span a range for Gascogne SA: cautious scenario €2.18, base €2.92, optimistic €4.35 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €2.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALBI?
The PEG ratio of Gascogne SA is 9.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gascogne SA (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −4.9%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALBI from its 52-week high?
Gascogne SA trades at €2.08, about 19% below its 52-week high of €2.56 and 9% above the low of €1.90 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gascogne SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gascogne SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €2.08, calculated fair value €2.92 (+40%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALBI calculated?
We run Gascogne SA through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €2.92 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Gascogne SA currently trades 29% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €2.08. Our model-based fair value is €2.92, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gascogne SA right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€2.18 to €4.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Gascogne SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The market capitalisation of Gascogne SA is €76.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gascogne SA is 0.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Earnings per share at Gascogne SA are €−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The net margin of Gascogne SA is −2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gascogne SA is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gascogne SA is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
The operating margin of Gascogne SA is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Revenue at Gascogne SA is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gascogne SA (ALBI)?
Earnings per share at Gascogne SA are growing +164% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gascogne SA (ALBI) generate?
The free cash flow of Gascogne SA is −€62.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gascogne SA (ALBI) carry?
The net debt of Gascogne SA is €217M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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